How Stable is Turkey? An In-Depth Look at the Country’s Political Situation

Turkey is a country that has gone through major political transformations in recent years. With controversial leadership under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) Turkey’s stability has come into question. In this article we’ll analyze the current political climate in Turkey and examine how stable the country really is.

The Move Toward Autocracy

Since the AKP came to power in 2002, Turkey has shifted from a parliamentary democracy to a presidential system under Erdogan. The president has amassed extensive powers by changing the constitution, giving him control over appointments of key positions like judges. Many observers see this as a move toward autocratic rule.

• In April 2017, a referendum passed to abolish the role of prime minister and give the president enhanced powers. This led to concerns over the erosion of checks and balances.

• In 2018 Erdogan was re-elected as Turkey’s first executive president under the new presidential system.

• The government has purged tens of thousands of political opponents from the civil service and jailed journalists and activists. Academic freedom has also declined.

According to the BTI 2024 Country Report, the process of autocratization in Turkey has resulted in a “repressive political environment.” While elections still take place, they have become “increasingly unfair and nontransparent.”

The Impact on Political Stability

This shift toward authoritarianism has coincided with a decline in Turkey’s political stability. According to World Bank data, Turkey’s “Political Stability and Absence of Violence” score has fallen from -0.95 in 2013 to -1.04 in 2022 on a scale from -2.5 to 2.5. Lower scores indicate less stability.

Some key factors impacting Turkey’s stability:

• Polarization: Turkish society has become highly polarized between pro- and anti-Erdogan camps. The divided political climate leads to instability.

• Economic uncertainty: Turkey has faced economic troubles including high unemployment, inflation, and a weakening currency. This fuels discontent.

• Terrorism: Conflicts with Kurdish separatists and Islamic militant groups have led to terrorist attacks in Turkey. The government’s crackdown has also created tensions.

• Refugees: Turkey hosts over 3.7 million Syrian refugees which has led to societal tensions.

• Foreign policy: Relations with the West have deteriorated over issues like Turkey’s purchase of Russian weapons. This contributes to instability.

Government Crackdown and Suppression of Dissent

To maintain control, the AKP government has aggressively cracked down on dissent, jailing opposition figures and shutting down critical media outlets.

• In 2016, the government imposed a state of emergency after a failed coup attempt, which lasted over 2 years and led to a widespread purge of Erdogan critics.

• In June 2021, Turkey’s Constitutional Court began considering whether to dissolve the pro-Kurdish People’s Democratic Party (HDP) over alleged militant links.

• Hundreds of staff members of the Istanbul municipal government were detained in late 2021 for suspected terrorist connections. The mayor Ekrem Imamoglu has been a rising political opponent of Erdogan.

• In December 2022, Imamoglu was sentenced to prison for insulting public officials, barring him from politics. The move was seen as politically motivated to sideline a key challenger.

This suppression of dissent removes key checks on Erdogan’s power and enables his authoritarian control. But it also generates instability by fueling resentment and resistance among the populace.

Can the Opposition Unseat Erdogan?

With parliamentary and presidential elections scheduled for mid-2023, Turkey’s opposition parties have united in a 6-party alliance aiming to unseat Erdogan. But as of early 2023, they have yet to formulate a cohesive program to address Turkey’s issues.

• In the past, the fragmented opposition failed to effectively challenge the AKP.

• The AKP’s control over media and state resources gives it a major advantage.

• Observers worry elections will not be free or fair.

Public dissatisfaction with the economy could hurt Erdogan’s popularity. But his aggressive suppression of challengers means he is still likely to maintain dominance through undemocratic means.

Outlook for Turkey’s Future

Turkey under Erdogan has consolidated autocratic rule, but major challenges persist:

• An inefficient, over-centralized governance system

• A limping economy plagued by high inflation and unemployment

• Ongoing terrorist threats and regional instability

With Erdogan’s popularity declining but his grasp on power still firm, Turkey faces an uncertain future. While the country is unlikely to face imminent collapse, further democratic backsliding and volatility are expected barring a major political shift.