Is There a Shortage of Turkey This Year?

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Thanksgiving is just over a week away. Do you have your Thanksgiving turkey yet? The USDA has predicted a turkey shortage for 2022. If you and your family plan to gobble up the Thanksgiving dinner essential, reserve one now while you still can.

Your friends at CBS Essentials have found a variety of retailers that will allow you to purchase a turkey online, before the holiday. Weve even found a retailer that will give you a Thanksgiving turkey for free.

In its October report, The USDA warns that turkey production will be lower for the rest of 2022 and the first half of 2023 due to outbreaks of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). Turkey prices are up significantly over last year due to HPAI (PDF).

Thanksgiving is coming up fast. While youre shopping for your Thanksgiving turkey, remember to give yourself enough time. According to food-shipping site Goldbelly, frozen turkeys take approximately three to four days to thaw in the fridge, depending on their size. That means youll need your turkey delivered at least five days before Thursday, Nov. 24.

Weve scoured the internet for the best Thanksgiving turkeys you can buy online. Weve found top-rated, drool-worthy birds from Amazon, DArtagnan, Harry & David, Blue Apron and more that you can buy now and freeze, or reserve and have your turkey delivered just in time for the holiday.

Turkey has become a staple for many families’ Thanksgiving meals. However in 2022 turkeys were hard to find and prices were inflated due to several factors causing an overall shortage. This led many to wonder – will there be another turkey shortage in 2023?

What Caused the Turkey Shortage in 2022?

A few key factors led to the turkey shortage last year

Avian Flu Outbreak – 2022 saw one of the worst avian flu outbreaks ever recorded in the US. This deadly bird disease killed over 50 million birds across 46 states, decimating many turkey flocks. With less supply, prices rose.
Inflation – General inflation in food prices and supply chain issues impacted turkeys as it did many other goods. With higher production costs for feed, labor, and transportation, turkey prices were inflated.
Smaller Gatherings – Due to the pandemic in 2021, many opted for smaller Thanksgiving gatherings. This led to increased demand for smaller turkeys rather than large ones, further limiting supply.
Supply Chain Disruptions – Ongoing labor shortages and supply chain issues made it harder to get turkeys from farm to table efficiently, reducing supply capabilities.

Why Won’t There Be a Turkey Shortage in 2023?

The outlook for turkey availability and pricing in 2023 looks positive thanks to a few key factors:

Lower Avian Flu Impact – While avian flu continues to persist in wild birds, turkey outbreaks so far in 2023 have been minimal. With flocks largely intact, supply is much higher.
Higher Production – Turkey production is estimated to be up about 2.5% in 2023. More birds were hatched and raised to meet holiday demand.
Return of Large Gatherings – As pandemic precautions ease, larger friend and family gatherings are expected for the holidays. This means demand for large turkeys rather than smaller ones.
Promotions Planned – Retailers are preparing for good turkey availability with promotions planned. Discounts are expected on frozen turkeys.

What This Means for Consumers

For 2023 holiday shoppers, the turkey outlook is positive:

Lower Prices – With more supply and lower production costs, turkey prices are forecast to be lower than 2022. Discounts are likely.
Good Availability – With flocks intact and higher production numbers, there should be no shortage of turkeys at grocery stores.
Shop Early – While shortages are not expected, shopping early ensures you get the size bird you need. Talk to your grocer’s meat department by early November about specific preferences.
Check for Deals – Retailers will be promoting turkey discounts and deals as we get closer to the holidays. Look for savings on frozen turkeys.
Have a Backup Plan – If you have trouble finding a whole turkey, be ready with a backup menu plan like a turkey breast, legs, or curkey (chicken-turkey hybrid).

While inflation continues to impact many household costs, turkey does not look to be one you’ll have to worry about for your 2023 Thanksgiving feast. With more birds to go around this year, retailers are confident there will be an ample supply to meet holiday demand. Shop early for the best selection and savings.

is there a shortage of turkey

Blue Apron’s Thanksgiving feast

Blue Apron offers a budget-friendly Thanksgiving feast that you make yourself. Recipe cards and just about everything you need for Thanksgiving dinner are included.

The traditional holiday meal serves six to eight people. It includes butter-roasted turkey breast, homemade garlic and herb gravy, fresh cranberry sauce with ginger and spicy maple syrup, roasted Brussels sprouts with fried rosemary and pumpkin seeds, brown butter and fontina mashed potatoes with Romano cheese and chives, and apple crumb pie with warming spices and almonds.

Blue Apron also offers add-ons and additional options for vegetarians.

Harry & David gourmet turkey feast

If you dont have time to make your own Thanksgiving feast, Harry & David can make one for you.

The meal includes a pre-cooked, ready-to-heat, 10-pound turkey. You also get apple sausage stuffing, creamy Brussels sprouts with bacon, brown sugar sweet potatoes, pumpkin New York cheesecake, classic turkey gravy and spiced cranberry chutney. Doesnt that sound delicious?

Is there a turkey shortage ahead of Thanksgiving?

FAQ

Why are there no large turkeys this year?

Paul Kelly, MD of independent supplier Kelly Turkeys, said there had been a “big shake-up” among smaller, often seasonal producers. Concerns over rising production costs, coupled with ongoing labour issues and the continuing threat of avian flu, had led “several” sizeable producers to walk away, he reported.

Why is turkey so hard to find?

Last year, high rates of the avian flu—which was possibly the worst in history, according to The Washington Post—combined with inflation led to a turkey shortage. For 2023, shoppers can expect a different experience, according to NTF president Joel Brandenberger.

Why are there no butterball turkeys?

Butterball confirmed the news. The problem, according to spokeswoman Stephanie Llorente, is “a decline in weight gains on some of our farms.” Specifically, there’s a shortage of fresh turkeys weighing 16 pounds or more.

Why is turkey not available all year?

Because of the poultry production supply chain, the timing of bird flu outbreaks affects the availability of certain kinds of turkeys, Martin says. There should be an “ample supply” of frozen turkeys, Martin says, because producers can store frozen turkeys for up to a year before we see them on grocery shelves.