Need something to be thankful for? Well, in addition to the roof above your head and the device you’re reading this on, you can add the price of your Thanksgiving turkey to the list.
That’s according to the American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF), which found that the average price of an 8-to-16-pound turkey was $1.27 per pound in August 2023 — a 22% decline from August 2022. The U.S. Department of Agriculture likewise lists the average price per pound for frozen, whole hen turkeys as $1.27 in August 2023 — down just over 22% from $1.64 in August 2022.
The prices of some turkey products fell more dramatically, like boneless and skinless male turkey breasts, which were 61% cheaper in August 2023 than the same time last year, per the AFBF.
As Thanksgiving approaches many families are starting to think about their holiday meals. The star of most Thanksgiving dinners is the turkey but with inflation at a 40-year high, shoppers may experience some sticker shock this year when buying their birds. So how much does a turkey cost per pound in 2022? Let’s take a look at the factors impacting prices this year and do a cost comparison across popular grocery stores.
What Impacts the Price of Turkey?
Several key factors contribute to fluctuating turkey prices each holiday season:
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Supply and Demand – Basic economics apply to turkey prices. When demand rises for Thanksgiving turkeys, prices typically follow If turkey production falls short of demand due to supply chain issues, disease, or other factors, prices can spike
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Feed Costs – The price of corn and soybean feed impacts the cost to raise turkeys. Drought or other adverse weather can reduce yields and drive up feed costs.
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Fuel Costs – Fuel impacts transportation costs throughout the supply chain. From the farm to the processor to the grocery store fuel costs factor into the final turkey price.
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Processing Costs – Labor, packaging, and other processing expenses along the supply chain influence the base cost of turkeys.
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Retailer Margins – The margins retailers build in for profit on turkey sales can cause variability in pricing. Special holiday promotions on turkeys help drive store traffic.
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Turkey Size – Shoppers can expect to pay more per pound for larger turkeys than smaller birds. A supermarket turkey price breakdown often aligns with weight classes.
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Specialty Options – Organic, free-range, heritage breed, and other specialty turkeys come at a premium cost over standard supermarket birds.
Average Supermarket Turkey Prices 2022
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 36th annual survey, the average cost for a 16-pound turkey this Thanksgiving is $28.96. This comes out to $1.81 per pound, up 21% from $1.49 per pound last year.
The Farm Bureau survey checks prices at grocery stores nationwide during the first week of November each year. Here is how average per pound supermarket turkey prices have trended over the past five years:
- 2022 – $1.81 per lb.
- 2021 – $1.49 per lb.
- 2020 – $1.20 per lb.
- 2019 – $1.38 per lb.
- 2018 – $1.40 per lb.
While the national average gives a benchmark, turkey prices can vary quite a bit across different regions and stores. Let’s look at a turkey price comparison across some of the most popular grocery chains.
Turkey Price Comparison by Grocery Store
Here are the average prices per pound for frozen turkeys from several major supermarket chains:
- Aldi – $1.07 per lb. (Butterball brand)
- Walmart – $1.00 per lb. (Walmart brand)
- Kroger – $0.39 to $1.49 per lb. (private label & Butterball)
- Target – $0.99 per lb. (Good & Gather brand)
- Costco – $0.99 per lb. (Kirkland brand)
- Publix – $1.49 per lb. (Publix brand)
- Wegmans – $1.69 to $1.99 per lb.
- Whole Foods – $1.99 to $3.99 per lb.
This comparison shows the turkeys at discount retailers like Walmart and Aldi offer the lowest prices, while premium grocers charge more per pound. Warehouse clubs like Costco offer great bulk savings on large birds.
Turkey Prices by Weight Class
Supermarkets typically categorize turkeys into different weight classes, which get priced accordingly:
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8 to 16 lbs – Smaller turkeys ideal for smaller gatherings of 4-8 people. Price ranges from $0.89 to $1.69 per lb.
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16 to 24 lbs – The most common turkey size for an average sized Thanksgiving gathering of 8-12 people. Price ranges from $0.99 to $1.99 per lb.
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24 to 30 lbs – Larger birds for big family holiday meals. Price ranges from $1.29 to $2.49 per lb.
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30 lbs and up – Extra large turkeys are premium priced for big groups of 12 or more. Price ranges from $1.49 to $2.99 per lb.
Shoppers can save money by purchasing a smaller turkey if they don’t need a giant 30-pound bird to feed a crowd. Just remember to allow for about 1 pound of turkey per person when estimating how big of a turkey to buy.
Buying Fresh vs Frozen Turkeys
Turkey can be purchased either fresh or frozen. Here is a quick comparison between the two options:
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Fresh turkeys – Never frozen, has a shorter shelf life of just a few days. Highest quality texture and flavor. Can cost $0.20 to $0.60 more per pound than frozen.
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Frozen turkeys – Previously frozen at the processing plant but retains good flavor and juiciness when thawed properly. Extended shelf life of up to one year in the freezer. More budget friendly option over fresh.
If buying fresh, shoppers need to plan to buy their turkey within a day or two of actually cooking it. Frozen turkeys should be thawed 3-4 days in the fridge before roasting.
Where to Find Turkey Deals
Here are some tips for saving money on your holiday bird:
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Check sales circulars and load digital coupons when turkey deals get released close to Thanksgiving. Retailers like Walmart, Kroger, and more discount turkeys the week before Thanksgiving.
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Look for coupons, loyalty discount programs, and turkey giveaways through local supermarkets. Signing up for a loyalty card can give instant digital coupons.
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Shop grocery store turkey promotions the week before Thanksgiving when sales kick off. But shop early as popular sizes sell out.
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Watch for warehouse club turkey promotions for bulk discounting. Stock up and divvy up extra turkey with family or friends.
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Buy discounted gift cards from resellers to save on groceries. Use gift cards to turkeys and Thanksgiving meal essentials.
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Purchase a smaller turkey to reduce cost. Supplement with turkey breast or other cuts purchased separately.
Outlook for Turkey Prices the Rest of 2022
Due to the many factors putting pressure on prices, turkey will likely remain expensive through the holidays. USDA economist Michael Swanson predicts turkey prices will remain elevated over the next 3-4 months. However, prices may not be as extreme as other Thanksgiving price increases shoppers are seeing on items like eggs, butter, potatoes, stuffing, and other side dishes.
The USDA reported frozen whole hen turkeys in September were priced at $1.47 per pound nationally, up 22.7% from one year ago. But prices could moderate closer to the holidays as grocers discount birds to drive sales. By December, prices may come back down slightly as demand falls after the Thanksgiving rush.
With inflation making Thanksgiving more expensive this year, shoppers can still find ways to save on turkey and put together an affordable holiday feast by using coupons, buying discounted gift cards, and more. Following tips to find the best turkey prices will help offset higher costs for other parts of your Thanksgiving meal.
How the avian flu could affect turkey availability
Because of the poultry production supply chain, the timing of bird flu outbreaks affects the availability of certain kinds of turkeys, Martin says.
There should be an “ample supply” of frozen turkeys, Martin says, because producers can store frozen turkeys for up to a year before we see them on grocery shelves. But fresh turkeys will be harder to come by, Martin says, due to the recent surge in influenza cases. That outbreak coincided with the end of the poultry industry’s “seasonal processing,” Martin says. Any fresh turkeys that needed to be in grocery stores by Thanksgiving should’ve been processed four to six weeks beforehand.
Nerdy Tip One pound of frozen whole turkey will yield around 8 ounces of meat.
“At this late date, most of the fresh stock has already been processed and is being held in refrigeration,” Martin says. “If you need a fresh bird, you should be ordering it now. Not later — now.”
Frozen turkeys are often cheaper than fresh turkeys. As of Nov. 3, the average cost of a frozen turkey is roughly $1.18 per pound in the northeastern U.S., compared to $1.69 per pound for fresh turkeys, according to the USDA’s most recent national turkey retail report. (The USDA lists the prices of both fresh and frozen turkeys only in the Northeast.)
If you were hoping to snag a fresh turkey from a local farm, you may be out of luck this year, Martin says, since those farms can’t process and store turkeys as far back as larger producers can.
“If you’re ordering from a local farm, you probably should’ve done it last month,” Martin says.
Below, you’ll find the listed online prices for frozen turkeys at several grocery stores. Note: Each product’s price per pound was checked in several U.S. cities, but prices may still vary in your area.
Target:
- $1.49 per pound: Butterball premium all-natural young turkey.
- 99 cents per pound: Good & Gather premium basted young turkey.
Albertsons:
- $2.59 per pound: Butterball whole turkey.
- $2.49 per pound: Signature Farms whole turkey.
- $4.49 per pound: Signature Select fully cooked hickory smoked whole young turkey.
Publix:
- $69 cents per pound: Publix whole turkey Grade A.
- $2.99 per pound: Plainville whole turkey, raised without antibiotics.
Walmart:
- $1.28 per pound: Butterball premium whole turkey.
- 98 cents per pound: Shady Brook Farms whole young turkey.
Poultry industry ‘holding its breath’
In early 2022, what would become the largest bird flu outbreak in U.S. history started infecting wild and commercial flocks. Since then, it’s killed more than 60 million birds, and those shrinking supplies drove sharp increases in poultry and egg prices.
But the situation has improved. In September 2023, a little over 500 birds contracted the avian flu. That’s a dramatic decline from the same period one year earlier, when 8.15 million birds contracted the flu, according to the AFBF.
“We’re holding our breath,” says Gregory P. Martin, an extension educator in poultry at Penn State University Extension, speaking about the broader poultry industry.
But while the situation is much better than last year, avian flu cases have started climbing again. There were 520 new avian influenza cases in September; in October, there were 1.37 million new cases. So far in November, 1.09 million new cases have been detected.
How much will your Thanksgiving turkey cost?
FAQ
What is the average price of turkey per pound?
How much is a 15 lb turkey?
How much does a 10 lb turkey feed?
Why are turkeys so cheap this year?
How much does a whole turkey cost?
Plan for your feast and choose from Homestyle Turkey, Spiral Ham or Prime Rib with all the traditional sides for as little as $69.99, depending upon meat selection. *Updated for 2023* This year the Member’s Mark Frozen All-Natural Whole Turkey priced at $1.19 per pound (available starting November 10).
How much does a turkey cost at Whole Foods?
The all natural brined young turkey is priced at $1.99 per pound, while the limited Glatt kosher turkeys are $2.99 per pound. This year, Whole Foods is offering low holiday prices and three different turkey options. Whole turkeys start at $1.99 per pound, while organic whole turkeys are $2.99 per pound.
How much does a turkey cost at Aldi?
Turkey prices: Turkeys arrived at Aldi stores earlier this month. Prices for frozen turkeys start at 59 cents per pound, although prices and quantities may vary by store. Locations: 546 locations in 44 U.S. States and Puerto Rico Turkey prices:
How much is a pound of frozen turkey per pound?
*Updated for 2023* Meijer Frozen Grade A Turkey $0.49 per pound (down .10 from last year), limit 1. Reg price $0.59. For a little more, get a Butterball Frozen Grade A Turkey $1.29 per pound, limit 2. *Updated for 2023* Kroger or Jeani- O (10-14 lb) is $0.69 a pound. This is down $1 from last year.