How Much Is A 16 lb Turkey Going To Cost You This Thanksgiving?

Thanksgiving is right around the corner, which means it’s time to start planning your holiday meal. For many families, the centerpiece of Thanksgiving dinner is a roasted turkey But with inflation driving food prices up, how much should you expect to pay for a 16 lb turkey this year?

Turkey Prices Are Up in 2021

According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual survey, the average cost for a 16 lb turkey in 2021 is $23.99. This represents a 24% increase compared to last year’s average of $19.39 for a 16 lb bird.

Several factors are contributing to higher turkey prices this Thanksgiving

• Increased feed costs – It costs more for farmers to feed their turkeys, so they have to pass those costs on to consumers. The price of corn and soybean feed is up significantly this year.

• Supply chain issues – Like many industries, the turkey supply chain has been disrupted by COVID-19 and labor shortages. This has made it more expensive to process and transport turkeys to grocery stores.

• Thanksgiving demand – Turkeys are always in highest demand around the holidays. With more people gathering for Thanksgiving this year compared to 2020, demand is outpacing supply which leads to higher prices.

• Turkey sizes – The size of turkeys being raised has decreased slightly, meaning more small birds and fewer large birds. With less large 16+ lb turkeys available, prices go up for the biggest birds.

So while turkey prices have been gradually increasing for years, the jump for 2021 is sharper than usual. Expect to pay 20-25% more than last Thanksgiving if you want a 16 lb or larger turkey.

Turkey Prices Vary by Region

Turkey prices can vary quite a bit depending on where you live. According to the Farm Bureau survey, the average 16 lb turkey costs:

• $19.39 in Louisiana
• $23.99 in New York
• $28.96 in Hawaii

Regional differences in feed costs and availability of locally-raised turkeys impact the prices grocers have to charge. If you live in an area with lots of turkey farms, you’ll generally find the best deals. Places like Hawaii that have to import most of their turkeys will see the highest prices.

Look for Turkey Specials and Coupons

While the overall trend is higher turkey prices across the board, savvy shoppers can still find deals on holiday birds. Here are some tips:

• Check for specials at warehouse clubs like Costco, Sam’s Club, and BJ’s. They often offer loss leader pricing on turkeys and other Thanksgiving staples.

• Watch for turkey coupons and rebates from grocers and brands like Butterball. Around the holidays, savings of $5 or more are common.

• Ask your local butcher if they can get you a fresh turkey for less than the supermarket. Many independent butchers have suppliers outside the big commercial turkey farms.

• Order directly from a local turkey farm. Bypassing the grocery store middleman can lead to sizable savings.

• Buy a smaller turkey. You can often find better pricing for turkeys in the 10-14 lb range compared to 16 lbs and up. Supplement with more side dishes.

• Buy an alternate protein like a ham or roast. Not as festive, but far more budget-friendly.

Should You Buy Your Turkey Early?

Some experts advise buying your frozen turkey weeks in advance to lock in the best price as supplies tighten. However, turkeys can safely be frozen for months past their sell-by date.

Buying too early takes up valuable freezer space and means you pay more interest if buying on credit. The exception would be if you find an absolute steal of a deal that isn’t likely to be matched later.

You’re probably better off waiting until 1-2 weeks before Thanksgiving when more market data is available. At that point, retailers have a good handle on supplies and can set final prices accordingly.

Estimate Your Turkey Costs

Figuring about $1.50/lb for a 16 lb turkey is a safe estimate this year. But you may find prices running $1.25 on the low end to $1.75 on the high end. Multiply the weight of the turkey you want by your estimated price per pound.

Then add roughly $8-$15 for stuffing, coating, etc. if you want a pre-prepared turkey. For a fresh turkey, plan for giblet packets, brining supplies, etc. to add $5-10 to your total.

Here are some examples:

• 16 lb plain frozen turkey at $1.50/lb = $24 + $10 for supplies = $34
• 16 lb pre-basted turkey at $1.60/lb = $25.60 + $12 premium = $37.60
• 16 lb fresh turkey at $1.75/lb = $28 + $8 for brine = $36

While out-of-pocket costs are up this year, keep things in perspective. Even at a 25% premium, a turkey still costs around $1.50 per pound. When priced per serving, it remains one of the most economical centerpieces you can choose for a special meal with family and friends.

Enjoy Your Holiday Feast

However much you pay for your Thanksgiving bird, keep the focus on enjoying time with your loved ones. Splurging on a big turkey costs far less than eating the same meal at a restaurant. And you can use leftovers creatively for casseroles, soups, sandwiches and more to extend your holiday dining.

If money is very tight this year, have an open conversation with guests about potluck-style contributions to the meal. Or downsize to a smaller turkey or chicken. What matters most is gathering together in the spirit of the season. With a little planning and flexibility, you can find a holiday turkey that fits both your budget and holiday tradition.