Buying turkey for Thanksgiving dinner is a big choice. Do you want a heritage bird or a classic grocery store bird-in-a-bag? Fresh or frozen? Whole or parts? And, arguably the most important consideration of all: Just how much turkey per person do you need?
To calculate how big your Thanksgiving turkey should be, you’ve got to figure out the number of guests you’re serving and how much turkey each might eat. After all, if you’re hosting Thanksgiving, it’s your mission to send everyone home as full of delicious food as possible.
Thanksgiving is right around the corner, which means it’s time to start planning the big meal. For many families, the centerpiece of Thanksgiving dinner is the turkey. But with inflation driving food prices higher is that turkey going to bust your holiday budget?
I did some research to find out just how much a Thanksgiving turkey costs this year, Here’s a look at the average cost of a turkey and how to save money when buying one for your holiday feast,
The Average Cost of a Thanksgiving Turkey in 2022
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s 36th annual survey, the average cost for a 16-pound turkey this Thanksgiving is $28.96. That comes out to about $1.81 per pound.
This represents a 21% increase compared to last year’s average of $23.99 for a 16-pound turkey. So inflation is definitely hitting the holiday bird.
WalletHub estimates that Americans will spend a total of $949 million on Thanksgiving turkeys this year. That’s an increase of about $176 million from 2021.
While the national average gives a good benchmark, turkey prices can vary quite a bit depending on where you live.
Regional Price Differences
The American Farm Bureau Federation survey found significant regional differences in turkey prices across the U.S. this year:
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The South has the least expensive turkeys, averaging $1.77 per pound for a 16-pound bird.
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The Northeast has the most expensive turkeys at an average of $1.95 per pound.
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In the Midwest, expect to pay an average of $1.80 per pound.
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The West falls in the middle at $1.86 per pound.
So if you live in New England, your Thanksgiving turkey will cost over 10% more than your cousins down South!
Most and Least Expensive States
Looking at individual states, the most expensive turkeys are found in:
- Hawaii – $5.29 per pound
- New York – $2.78 per pound
- Maine – $2.58 per pound
- Vermont – $2.56 per pound
- Massachusetts – $2.51 per pound
The cheapest turkeys are found in:
- Texas – $1.47 per pound
- Missouri – $1.49 per pound
- Virginia – $1.54 per pound
- North Carolina – $1.56 per pound
- Florida – $1.57 per pound
So if you want to save money on your Thanksgiving turkey, head to the Lone Star State! In Texas, you’ll pay 59% less than turkey buyers in Hawaii.
Why Are Turkey Prices Up This Year?
Several factors are driving the increase in turkey prices for 2022:
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Inflation – Rising costs for fuel, labor, packaging and transportation are pushing food prices higher across the board. Turkey is no exception.
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Supply chain issues – Ongoing disruptions in processing and distribution have made it more expensive to get turkeys from farm to table. This reduces supply.
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Bird flu – An avian influenza outbreak led to the culling of over 6 million turkeys so far in 2022. Tighter supply equals higher prices.
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** pent-up demand** – After downsized gatherings the past couple years, many families plan larger crowds for Thanksgiving 2022. That further strains supply.
So between inflationary pressures and supply shortages, turkey producers are having to charge more this year to cover their increased costs.
How Stores Are Responding with Turkey Deals
Despite the higher wholesale turkey prices, many grocery chains are offering deals to attract Thanksgiving shoppers:
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Walmart is selling its store-brand turkeys for under $1 per pound and matching its 2021 prices on traditional Thanksgiving fare.
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Aldi has rolled back prices on Thanksgiving staples by up to 30% to match 2019 levels. Frozen turkeys start at 49¢ per pound.
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Lidl has Thanksgiving meals for 10 people priced under $30. Its frozen turkeys cost as little as 49¢ per pound.
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Kroger has a meal plan feeding 10 for $5 per person. Its turkeys range from 39¢ to $1.49 per pound.
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Meijer is offering turkeys for as low as 49¢ per pound with mPerks coupons.
So while turkey prices are definitely higher overall this year, shopping sales and using coupons can still help you score a deal. Being flexible on turkey size and brand can also save money.
7 Tips for Saving on Your Thanksgiving Turkey
Here are some savvy tips to help you keep turkey costs down:
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Shop early – Prices tend to be lowest right after Halloween. Shop a couple weeks early if you can.
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Buy a smaller bird – Opt for a 10-12 lb. turkey instead of a 20-pounder to cut costs. Cook extra side dishes.
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Consider other proteins – Roast chicken, ham or pork loin can be cheaper alternatives.
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Check for coupons – Grocery stores often put out turkey coupons close to the holiday.
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Check freezer discounts – Frozen turkeys tend to be less expensive than fresh.
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Buy store brand – Opt for the store’s house brand turkey rather than a name brand.
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Shop warehouse clubs – Costco, Sam’s Club and BJ’s often offer discounted turkeys to members.
A little strategic planning can go a long way towards scoring you a great deal on your family’s Thanksgiving turkey this year!
Average Cost of a Thanksgiving Meal for 10
While the turkey may be the star attraction, you have to factor in all the side dishes too.
The American Farm Bureau Federation estimates the average total cost for a classic Thanksgiving meal feeding 10 people is $64.05 in 2022. That’s up 20% from last year.
Here’s a breakdown of the average costs for the entire meal:
- Turkey – $28.96
- Stuffing – $3.88
- Sweet Potatoes – $3.88
- Rolls – $3.73
- Peas – $1.90
- Cranberry Sauce – $2.58
- Carrots – $1.02
- Celery – $1.09
- Pie Shells – $3.68
- Whipped Cream – $1.21
- Pie Filling – $8.70
- Misc. ingredients – $3.42
So while the turkey makes up the biggest portion of the total cost, those side dishes can also put a dent in your wallet. Finding ways to save on the entire meal can help you hosting Thanksgiving dinner on a budget.
Should I Order a Pre-Cooked Turkey Instead?
Another option to potentially save money and hassle is ordering a fully cooked turkey rather than buying one raw from the grocery store.
While this route does sacrifice the traditional experience of roasting your own bird, it can provide convenience and cost savings.
Here are some of the best places to order cooked turkeys for Thanksgiving:
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Cracker Barrel – Traditional home-style turkeys cooked in the store. Prices start at $8.99 per pound.
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Boston Market – Offers heat-and-serve roasted turkeys. Prices range from $89.99 up to $144.99 depending on size.
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Harry & David – Ships fully-cooked turkey breast meals and side dishes nationwide. Turkey packs start at $139.99.
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FreshDirect – Sells cooked turkeys for $6.99 to $7.99 per pound depending on size. Available in select areas.
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Publix – In-store deli offers fully cooked turkeys starting at $49.99 depending on weight.
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Honeysuckle White – Select grocery stores carry Honeysuckle cooked turkeys for around $50 and up.
Ordering early ensures you get the size you need. Reheating a cooked turkey also frees up your oven for all those yummy sides!
The Bottom Line on Turkey Costs
While higher prices may have you feeling more “Bah Humbug” than holiday cheer, there are still ways to serve up savings on your Thanksgiving turkey.
Focus on buying only what you need, checking for coupons and deals, and exploring alternatives like smaller birds or ordering pre-cooked. With a little planning, you can keep turkey costs from ruining your Thanksgiving budget.
At the end of the day, we can be thankful that we have access to delicious holiday meal options, even if we have to be mindful about costs. Here’s to a happy and affordable Thanksgiving feast this year!
How many pounds of turkey per person do I actually need?
The general rule of thumb is 1–1½ pounds turkey per person. If that seems like a lot, remember that a whole turkey comes with a lot of parts that don’t end up getting eaten. “When you buy a whole turkey, a lot of it is bone,” says recipe developer (and former BA staffer) Jessie YuChen. The smaller the bird, the higher that percentage may be. For smaller gatherings, Jessie recommends scaling up to 2 pounds per person to maximize leftovers (more on that later). “For four to six people, 11 to 13 pounds is a good range,” Jessie says. (Most of our recipes call for a 12-to-14-pound bird.)
Beyond the bones, the total mass of a whole bird accounts for cartilage and less favorable cuts of meat around the shoulders, neck, and back that are better suited for making stock the next day than for presenting on a platter. Just because you’re buying a pound per each guest doesn’t mean it’ll yield an equivalent amount of turkey meat.
What if I’m afraid of underserving my guests?
“Most people put out so many sides that running out of turkey really isn’t an issue,” says contributing editor Amiel Stanek. “Turkey is, in my experience, the thing people want least.” As a host, you can even take some of your attention away from a cartoonishly large Rockwellian bird and think deeply about the Thanksgiving side dishes. This is where you can customize your selection based on the size, tastes, and needs of your crowd. Serving a few extra vegetarians this year? Go all-in on mashed potatoes, green bean casserole, and roasted veggies (we recommend balsamic-roasted brussels sprouts, which are a test kitchen favorite).
Want to show off your baking skills? Make a big tray of showstopping stuffing biscuits. And, of course, you’ve got to have cranberry sauce—either homemade or canned, that’s your prerogative.
If you’re wondering, How big of a turkey do I need, really?, Amiel points out that the bigger the turkey, the less likely it is to cook evenly. He would much rather serve smallish portions of perfect poultry than massive servings that are half-raw, half-dry. “In terms of ensuring that the breast meat is delicious and moist and the dark meat is cooked through, I think you’re going to get the best results from a 14-to-15-pound turkey, max.”
Turkey size per person
Our advice: Go for a smaller turkey. We promise, there’ll be enough to go around.
If a 15-pound bird sounds teeny compared to your guest list, Amiel and Jessie recommend supplementing with a different meat or protein (no matter your party’s size). “I like to do steak or lamb chops,” says Jessie, “which are very festive and a lot easier to prepare than a whole turkey.” Having a second meat on the table provides a backup if your bird is on the scrawny side, but it also makes your turkey stretch further. Aim for 1–1½ total pounds of protein per person, including your supplementary main, and you’ll have nothing to worry about.
If you’re hosting a smaller gathering, another option is to forgo the roast turkey entirely in favor of a smaller bird—roast chicken or glazed duck make just as nice a centerpiece.
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