Marcus Lashley receives funding from the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission, the National Wild Turkey Federation, and Turkeys for Tomorrow.
William Gulsby receives funding from the Alabama Wildlife Federation, Turkeys for Tomorrow and the National Wild Turkey Federation.
Birdsong is a welcome sign of spring, but robins and cardinals aren’t the only birds showing off for breeding season. In many parts of North America, you’re likely to encounter male wild turkeys, puffed up like beach balls and with their tails fanned out, aggressively strutting through woods and parks or stopping traffic on your street.
Wild turkeys were abundant across North America when European settlers arrived. But people killed them indiscriminately year-round – sometimes for their meat and feathers, but settlers also took turkey eggs from nests and poisoned adult turkeys to keep them from damaging crops. Thanks to this unregulated killing and habitat loss, by 1900 wild turkeys had disappeared from much of their historical range.
Turkey populations gradually recovered over the 20th century, aided by regulation, conservation funding and state restoration programs. By the early 2000s, they could be found in Mexico, Canada and every U.S. state except Alaska.
Now, however, the trend appears to be reversing in some areas. In a 2021 study, eight out of 30 states surveyed reported that turkey populations declined from 2014 to 2019, with some of the sharpest decreases in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Louisiana and Oklahoma.
Turkey numbers increased in 14 states, mainly in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic. But even in many of those states, populations were down from historic peaks in the early 2000s. Another study in 2023 reported that turkey populations in the eastern half of the U.S. were declining by about 9% yearly, based on data from the past 50 years.
We are wildlife ecologists working to determine why turkey populations are shrinking in portions of their range. This is a classic challenge in ecology: Many factors could be at play, and it takes careful analysis to untangle them and figure out whether each trend is a cause or symptom – or just irrelevant.
We created the Wild Turkey Science podcast to make peer-reviewed science accessible to the public and provide a platform for turkey researchers and biologists to discuss their work. So far, we have reviewed numerous studies and interviewed scientists from more than a dozen states. Here are some hypotheses that have emerged:
While turkeys may appear at home in urban areas, their habitat is open forest – areas with sparse trees that allow near-full sunlight to reach herbaceous plants at ground level. Most uplands, or elevated areas, in the eastern U.S. historically were this type of dry-adapted woodland, savanna and grassland complex.
In 1792, naturalist William Bartram described the eastern U.S. as “Grande Savane,” or big savanna, a landscape with abundant wild turkeys. Traveling in Florida, Bartram wrote:
Today, very little woodland or savanna remains in the U.S. Most of it has been cleared for development, farming or livestock grazing. The open spaces that are left often are not suitable for wild turkeys: They need a well-developed layer of vegetation at ground level that includes mainly wild flowers, native grasses and young shrubs and trees to provide cover for nesting and raising their young.
Very few of the remaining lands suitable for wild turkeys are managed using frequent, low-intensity prescribed fire, which creates and maintains a mosaic of open forest and grassland by continually setting back growth of trees, shrubs and vines. Suppressing fire in these forests across the eastern U.S. allows them to change from open forest dominated by fire-adapted grasses and wildflowers to closed forests with dense canopies, creating shady, moist conditions with minimal vegetation near ground level.
Turkeys can persist in these denser, shaded forests, but they don’t reproduce as successfully, and fewer of their young survive. The lack of ground vegetation makes it hard for hens to hide their nests, and it limits food supplies for young turkey poults.
This isn’t just a problem for wild turkeys. Over the past 50 years, populations of bird species that live in open forests and grasslands have fallen by more than 50%. Grasslands and savannas support hundreds of other wild species as well, many of which are declining.
Over the past decade, turkey hunters across North America have been reporting fewer turkey sightings and decreased success rates. The concerning trend of declining wild turkey populations has now been confirmed by multiple studies and government surveys. But what exactly is causing turkeys to disappear from areas they once thrived in? And is there anything that can be done to reverse the decline?
Evidence of Decreasing Turkey Populations
While state wildlife agencies do not have exact wild turkey population counts, they do collect data each year that indicates whether numbers are rising or falling. harvest reports, poult-to-hen ratios, and brood surveys all show that turkey populations have been on a downward trend since the early 2000s in many areas
This is especially apparent in southern and midwestern states. Arkansas, Missouri, Alabama, Kentucky, and Tennessee have all reported turkey population declines of 50% or more over the past two decades. However, northeastern states like Pennsylvania and New York have actually seen turkey numbers increase during the same period.
Overall, it’s estimated that wild turkeys have declined by around 9% per year across the eastern half of the U.S. in recent decades. The decreases have been particularly steep in the last 10 years.
Why Are Wild Turkey Numbers Falling?
Wildlife biologists have proposed several potential factors contributing to shrinking turkey flocks
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Habitat Loss: The large tracts of open, diverse forests that turkeys need for nesting and brood rearing have been severely reduced by development, farming, and lack of ecological management.
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Low Reproductive Success: Predators like coyotes and raccoons are decreasing nest success and poult survival. Habitat changes likely support higher predator densities.
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Overhunting: Some states may be allowing unsustainable hunting pressure on turkey populations that are already struggling to reproduce.
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Climate Change: Extreme weather like droughts and severe flooding have reduced nesting habitat and food availability in some regions.
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Disease: Illnesses such as lymphoproliferative disease virus (LPDV) may be emergence threats to wild turkey health and survival.
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Pesticides: Some research indicates that certain chemicals like neonicotinoids may be indirectly harming insect and vegetation food sources.
Most experts agree that loss of ideal timber nesting and open brood rearing habitat is the primary culprit behind turkey declines. Lack of active forest management and wildfire suppression have allowed dense canopy cover to spread, and undergrowth to flourish.
Restoring Turkey Populations Through Habitat Management
While overhunting turkeys can put additional pressure on struggling populations, fixing the habitat issue is the key to recovery. Active management practices that can improve forest conditions for turkeys include:
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Conducting prescribed burns to maintain open understories with diverse groundcover.
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Selective thinning and pruning to open the canopy and promote undergrowth.
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Creating small clearings and “bugging” areas with bare dirt that provide extra food sources.
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Planting native forbs and grasses beneficial as brood cover and insect habitat.
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Protecting existing mature oak forests and rotational clearcut areas from development.
On private lands, encouraging landowners to implement these turkey-friendly habitat projects is crucial. Government agencies also need public support to fund and increase turkey habitat initiatives on public lands.
The Future of the Wild Turkey
Wild turkeys are a conservation success story after being brought back from near extinction in the early 1900s. But these iconic birds now face new threats that are causing populations to vanish from large portions of their historical range.
With coordinated efforts between wildlife agencies, conservation groups, land managers, and hunters, the decline can hopefully be reversed. Turkeys are a valuable game species, but they also have an important ecological role in balancing ecosystems. Ensuring sustainable populations will take continued research, funding, and dedication to actively improving habitat across public and private lands.
The roles of food, predators and hunting
Scientists have proposed other explanations for turkey declines, but many of these hypotheses are at least partly habitat issues.
For example, blame is often placed on more abundant predators that eat turkey eggs, such as raccoons and opossums. But these predators probably are more abundant in part due to changes in turkey habitat.
For example, a 2024 study found that a range of mammals that eat turkey eggs were observed 70% of the time when prescribed burning was not used, but were observed less than 10% of the time in open forests where planned burns were conducted biannually. This suggests that prescribed fire across the wild turkey’s range creates an environment that’s more favorable for turkeys than for their predators.
Some observers have suggested that turkeys may be so abundant that the landscape can’t support their current population, so now they are declining to a more sustainable level. If turkey habitat remained stable, we would expect to see their numbers go up and down naturally, but their average abundance over time would remain the same. Instead, turkey numbers appear to be slowly but steadily falling in many areas – perhaps signaling that habitat availability is declining along with turkey populations.
What about food supplies? Young turkeys feed on insects, so insect declines may explain some observed changes in turkey populations. According to one calculation, land-dwelling bird species that depend on insects as food have declined by 2.9 billion individuals over the past 50 years, while those species that don’t have gained by 26.2 million individuals.
Insect losses could explain why fewer turkeys are surviving to adulthood, but insects depend on plants, so this shift is likely also linked to habitat changes. And where land is managed to promote native flowers and grasses, there also are abundant pollinators, ants, grasshoppers and spiders that turkeys relish.
Lastly, some observers have proposed that the timing of hunting could be affecting turkey reproduction. However, a recent study in Tennessee found that this was not the case. Another recent study showed that hunters in the Southeast were harvesting about the same share of male turkeys as when turkey populations were growing rapidly. If current turkey harvest rates are unsustainable, the explanation is likely that wild turkey productivity has declined for other reasons, such as habitat.
Is the TURKEY POPULATION DECLINING? (Conservation Corner EP. 1)
FAQ
Why is the turkey population down?
Is turkey’s population increasing or decreasing?
Why is the turkey population declining in PA?
Why did turkeys almost go extinct?
What causes a declining Turkey population?
The Factors of a Population Decline Renowned turkey biologist and hunter Dr. Mike Chamberlain says there are a variety of factors contributing to turkey population declines. In the East, key issues include habitat loss and degradation, an increase in predators, and, yes, hunting pressure.
Are wild turkeys declining?
Acknowledging that wild turkeys are declining throughout much of their range is the first step toward fixing the problem. Chamberlain also warns against getting too comfortable in areas where turkey populations are thriving. Read Next: How to Hunt Gobblers That Go Ghost
What is the population density in Turkey?
The population density in Turkey is 114 per Km 2 (294 people per mi 2 ). The total land area is 769,630 Km2 (297,156 sq. miles). 76.4 % of the population is urban (66,795,292 people in 2024). The median age in Turkey is 33.0 years.
What is the population density of Turkey 2024?
See also: Countries in the world ranked by Life Expectancy The 2024 population density in Turkey is 114 people per Km 2 (294 people per mi 2 ), calculated on a total land area of 769,630 Km2 (297,156 sq. miles). A Population pyramid (also called “Age-Sex Pyramid”) is a graphical representation of the age and sex of a population.