The relationship between Israel and Turkey has gone through many ups and downs over the past several decades. While the two countries were allies in the past, more recently under President Erdogan’s leadership, Turkey seems to have positioned itself as an adversary of Israel. However, the situation remains complex and the future of Israel-Turkey relations uncertain.
Background on Israel-Turkey Relations
Israel and Turkey established diplomatic relations in 1949, soon after Israel gained independence. During the Cold War era the two countries developed close ties, cooperating especially in the areas of intelligence sharing military training and tourism. Turkey was the first Muslim-majority nation to recognize Israel.
This friendly relationship continued into the 1990s and 2000s. Turkey mediated several rounds of peace talks between Israel and Syria in the 1990s. Israel supplied Turkey with weapons and military technology while Turkey purchased Israeli drones and other defense equipment. The two countries signed a number of military and economic agreements.
Erdogan Administration Shifts Turkey Against Israel
However, the warm relations began to sour in the 2000s, especially after Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in Turkey in 2003. Erdogan embraced a more Islamist and anti-Western foreign policy orientation.
Several events contributed to the decline in Israel-Turkey ties:
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In 2004, Erdogan criticized Israel’s targeted assassinations of Hamas leaders.
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During Israel’s war against Hezbollah in 2006, Erdogan accused Israel of using disproportionate force and not taking adequate precautions to avoid civilian casualties.
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In 2008-2009, Erdogan harshly condemned Israel’s military operations against Hamas in Gaza.
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In 2010, the Gaza flotilla raid, in which Israeli commandos killed 9 Turkish activists trying to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza, sparked a major bilateral crisis. Turkey expelled Israel’s ambassador and suspended military agreements.
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Erdogan has frequently engaged in heated anti-Israel rhetoric, accusing Israel of terrorism and even genocide against the Palestinians.
Recent Thawing of Relations
Despite the animosity between Erdogan and Israeli leaders, in mid-2022 the two countries began efforts to normalize ties. With Israel expanding links with Gulf Arab states, Turkey seemingly wished to avoid further isolation in the region.
In August 2022, Israel and Turkey announced the full restoration of diplomatic relations and the return of ambassadors after a 4-year hiatus. However, Erdogan’s government still openly maintains ties with Hamas.
In late 2022, Erdogan shook hands with Israeli President Isaac Herzog at the FIFA World Cup, in a gesture of goodwill. Nevertheless, analysts say deep mistrust persists between the Turkish and Israeli leadership.
Mixed Signals from Erdogan on Israel as Ally or Enemy
Erdogan’s stance on Israel often appears contradictory. Despite leading the downgrading of bilateral ties, he has avoided fully burning bridges.
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In late 2021, Erdogan stated he believed Israeli-Turkish relations were important for security and stability in the Middle East.
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Yet in mid-2022, he threatened to launch a military operation against Israel similar to Turkey’s incursions into Syria.
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In early 2023, Erdogan’s government criticized Israel’s new right-wing government and said it would harm prospects for peace with the Palestinians.
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However, soon after in January 2023, Erdogan shook hands with Israeli PM Netanyahu on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos, signaling potential cooperation.
Factors Behind Turkey’s Erratic Israel Policy
Analysts assess several factors that may shape Turkey’s unpredictable posture toward Israel:
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Domestically, taking an anti-Israel stance helps Erdogan rally his conservative base and deflect attention from Turkey’s economic struggles.
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Regionally, aligning with Palestinian causes increases Erdogan’s credibility in the Arab/Muslim world.
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Turkey relies heavily on imports of Israeli drones, missiles and other arms, which Erdogan is unwilling to sacrifice.
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Too much anti-Israel rhetoric could damage Turkey’s relations with the U.S. and Europe.
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Normalized ties with Israel may advance Turkey’s Mediterranean gas exploration ambitions.
The Verdict: More Rival Than Ally But Full Enmity Unlikely
Given these conflicting dynamics, the Israel-Turkey relationship seems set to remain turbulent under Erdogan, oscillating between pragmatic cooperation and ideological rivalry.
While Erdogan tries to balance domestic politics with geopolitical interests regarding Israel, he will likely continue harsh criticism at times. But a complete break with Israel does not appear to be in Turkey’s strategic interests.
The two countries seem destined to have an ambivalent relationship, keeping diplomatic channels open despite mutual mistrust at the highest levels. While not outright enemies, Israel and Turkey are more aptly described as competitors than allies in the polarized Middle East landscape.
Turkish elite vs. societal opinion
KEVIN HUGGARD: To what extent is the Turkish political response to this crisis driven by bottom-up societal demands as opposed to the top-down needs of its political leaders?
ASLI AYDINTAŞBAŞ: No doubt the public is very sensitive to this issue — and in full sympathy with Palestinians. For the ordinary citizen, there is nonstop coverage of the suffering in Gaza and rolling commentary that Israel is able to do this because the United States allows it.
Public criticism of Hamas in the early days after the October 7 carnage is long gone. The picture that emerges in the public conversation is black and white, of the oppressor and the oppressed, with no nuance and barely a memory of what happened on October 7. There is also growing anti-Americanism for what is perceived as the United States’ blank check for Israel.
Erdoğan amplifies those sentiments and brings in an element of legitimization for Hamas by making the case that Hamas is not a terrorist organization. In doing this, he has been able to mold the public’s outlook on the issue: According to polling data from Metropoll, only 30% of respondents believe that Hamas is a terrorist organization.
This conflict has also allowed Erdoğan to make a case about a civilizational rift with the West. He calls it “crusader vs crescent” and of course, Turkey is on the side of the crescent. I worry that more and more people in Turkey are now buying this civilizational argument and think of Turkey as separate from the liberal order — which is described as immoral, bigoted, and hypocritical. I believe that the conflict in Gaza has just pushed Turkish society a few more inches towards the idea of a non-aligned Turkey.
Turkey’s response to the crisis
KEVIN HUGGARD: How has Turkey responded to the present crisis? In your policy paper, you write that the evidence suggests that “the Turkish establishment views this as an inflection point, not a passing flare-up of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.” Given this, has the Turkish policy response thus far represented a departure from its traditional posture toward Israel-Palestine?
ASLI AYDINTAŞBAŞ: Erdoğan is known for his pragmatism and his skillful use of geopolitics to expand Turkey’s interests. When it suits his interests, he is willing to drop principles, reverse course, straddle between the West and Russia, reconcile with enemies, and so on. But not on the Palestinian issue. There is no pragmatism there. Erdoğan sees it as his calling to take a position against what Israel is doing, even if the price is isolation. It is clearly personal, ideological, and near and dear to his heart.
Turkey has taken the most strident anti-Israeli position within NATO, with Erdoğan organizing pro-Palestinian rallies himself and slamming both Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the United States. But he may have gone overboard this time. Erdoğan has called Hamas a “liberation movement” — openly stating “Hamas is not a terrorist organization” and accusing Israel of committing “genocide.” Of course, this is very different from what many Arab leaders have done, which is criticizing Israel for its disregard for Palestinian civilians while also keeping their distance from Hamas.
When I spoke to Turkish diplomats and officials, even secularists, I was struck by how deeply resentful of the U.S. approach they were. There is plenty of criticism of Western double standards when it comes to dealing with civilian casualties in Ukraine and Gaza.
I noticed something else in these conversations: Turks are not certain that the threat of regional war is gone. They see the U.S. military buildup in the Eastern Mediterranean not as a deterrent for Iran, which is what the Biden administration intends, but as a provocation for Iran and Russia. They seemed to think that this could still become a regional inflection point, with a new intifada or greater involvement by Iran’s proxies, and later Russia.
Turkey’s Erdogan Remains an Enemy of Israel
FAQ
Is Turkey supporting Israel or Palestine?
Does Turkey support Iran or Israel?
Which countries cut ties with Israel?
Is Turkey eaten in Israel?
Will Turkey invade Israel in support of the Palestinians?
(AP/Petros Karadjias) Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan threatens to invade Israel in support of the Palestinians. “We must be very strong so that Israel can’t do these things to Palestine,” says Erdogan, one of the most bitter critics of Israel on the international stage, referring to the war against Hamas in Gaza.
Could Turkey intervene militarily in Israel’s War in Gaza?
Erdogan, who has consistently issued strong rhetoric during Israel’s 10-month war in Gaza, made the suggestion that Turkey could intervene militarily in a speech to his ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party on Sunday. “We need to be very strong so that Israel cannot do these ridiculous things to Palestine.
What happened between Turkey and Israel?
In December 2015, Turkey and Israel began talks to restore diplomatic ties; however disagreements between the sides continue. On 19 March 2016, a suicide bombing by ISIL took place in Istanbul ‘s Beyoğlu district. Among those killed were two dual Israel-US nationals and one Israeli national.
Does Turkey help fight Israeli fire?
“Turkey Helps Fight Israeli Fire”. WSJ. Archived from the original on 7 March 2016. Retrieved 17 April 2016. ^ “Turkey requests foreign quake aid amid lack of tents – Diplomacy – Worldbulletin News”.