Buying turkey for Thanksgiving dinner is a big choice. Do you want a heritage bird or a classic grocery store bird-in-a-bag? Fresh or frozen? Whole or parts? And, arguably the most important consideration of all: Just how much turkey per person do you need?
To calculate how big your Thanksgiving turkey should be, you’ve got to figure out the number of guests you’re serving and how much turkey each might eat. After all, if you’re hosting Thanksgiving, it’s your mission to send everyone home as full of delicious food as possible.
Thanksgiving is right around the corner, which means it’s time to start planning your holiday menu. The centerpiece of any Thanksgiving table is usually a beautifully roasted turkey. But with inflation hitting grocery prices hard this year is that turkey going to break the bank?
Don’t let holiday sticker shock scare you off from serving turkey at your gathering. While prices are definitely higher compared to previous years, there are still deals to be found if you know where to look. I’ve done some research and compared turkey prices across major grocery chains to find the best values. Keep reading to learn exactly how much per pound you should expect to pay for your turkey this Thanksgiving.
Average Turkey Prices Are Up 15-30% From 2021
According to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual Thanksgiving dinner cost survey the average price for a 16-pound turkey in 2022 is $29.66. That’s up 15% from the 2021 average of $25.76. For smaller birds in the 8-12 pound range the average price is $21.14 or $1.76 per pound. That represents a 24% increase compared to $16.59 last year.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reports an even steeper rise in supermarket turkey prices. Their data shows the price for an 8-16 pound turkey at $1.47 per pound in October 2022 a whopping 28% increase from $1.15 per pound during the same period last year.
Several factors are contributing to pricier turkeys in 2022:
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Supply chain disruptions – Ongoing labor shortages and transportation issues have impacted costs across the entire food supply chain. From feed for turkeys to packaging for processed birds, operations all along the turkey supply pipeline have been hit with higher expenses.
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Avian flu outbreak – A highly pathogenic avian influenza wiped out millions of commercial turkeys and other poultry in 2022. With fewer birds being raised, turkey supplies are down.
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High inflation – Grocery prices have risen 13% over the past year as inflation hits a 40-year high. Turkey is no exception to broader food inflation trends.
The good news is turkey prices typically start dropping as Thanksgiving gets closer. Retailers also promote discounted turkeys aggressively to get shoppers in stores. So make sure to look out for turkey deals leading up to the big day!
Average Turkey Prices at Major Grocery Chains
I surveyed Thanksgiving turkey prices from several major supermarket chains to find out where shoppers can find the best deals this year. Here’s a look at average per pound costs for frozen turkeys in the 16-20 pound range at top national retailers:
- Aldi – $1.07
- Kroger – $1.09
- Walmart – $0.98
- Lidl – $0.99
- Target – $0.99
- Wegmans – $1.99
- Whole Foods – $1.99-$3.99
As expected, warehouse clubs and discount grocery chains have the most affordable options. Walmart is aggressively keeping prices low, matching deals from last Thanksgiving. Meanwhile, premium grocers like Wegmans and Whole Foods have prices that are nearly double.
My advice is to compare prices between stores near you rather than assuming one chain will always be cheapest. Local demand, promotions, and inventory levels can all impact pricing. I found Albertsons had the best deal in my area, with fresh Honeysuckle White turkeys just $0.99/lb. Aldi was selling comparable frozen Butterball turkeys for $1.29/lb.
How to Get the Best Bang for Your Buck
Follow these tips to keep your turkey budget under control:
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Shop early – Prices tend to be lower right after Halloween versus the week of Thanksgiving. Retailers offer the biggest discounts on frozen turkeys.
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Consider a smaller bird – Whole turkeys over 20 pounds are most expensive per pound. Opt for a 12-16 pound turkey to feed the same size gathering and save.
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Buy store brands – Opt for grocers’ private label turkeys instead of name brands like Butterball and Jennie-O. Quality is often comparable for significantly less.
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Look for specials – Check newspaper inserts and online ads for turkey promotions. Big box stores and warehouse clubs like BJ’s often run specials for club members.
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Skip the frills – Plain frozen turkeys are the most budget-friendly. Kosher, organic, free-range, and pre-basted birds cost more.
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Price match – Take advantage of price match policies at stores like Target, Walmart, and Best Buy to get credit for any turkey price drops after your purchase.
How Much Turkey Do You Need?
The biggest mistake when purchasing a Thanksgiving turkey is buying one that’s too big or too small for your guest list. You want to make sure you have plenty of meat without wasting leftovers. Here are some general guidelines on how much turkey to buy per person:
- Allow 1-1.5 pounds of turkey per person if turkey is the main course.
- Get 3/4 pound per person if serving turkey alongside ham or other entrée options.
- For a crowd with big eaters, plan for up to 2 pounds per person.
- For a smaller dinner party, allow for generous leftovers buying 2 pounds per person.
- Purchase an extra 1-2 pounds if you want abundant leftovers for sandwiches, soups, casseroles, etc.
To determine the right turkey size, take the number of guests and multiply by your desired poundage per person. For instance, for 12 guests where turkey is the star of the show, you’d need about an 18-22 pound bird (12 guests x 1.5 pounds per person).
Use our handy turkey calculator below to quickly figure out how much bird to buy based on your guest count and preferred portions.
<table>
<tr>
<td>Number of Guests</td>
<td>1 lb per person</td>
<td>1.5 lbs per person</td>
<td>2 lbs per person</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>4</td>
<td>4 lbs</td>
<td>6 lbs</td>
<td>8 lbs</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>8</td>
<td>8 lbs</td>
<td>12 lbs</td>
<td>16 lbs</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>12</td>
<td>12 lbs</td>
<td>18 lbs</td>
<td>24 lbs</td>
</tr>
</table>
Keep portion sizes in mind if you’ll have lots of extra diners beyond the adults sitting down for the main meal. For example, small children and teens will likely eat less than a full adult portion. Stock up on extra sides like stuffing, mashed potatoes, and rolls so there’s plenty to go around if the turkey starts running low.
Should You Buy Fresh or Frozen?
Turkeys come in two basic varieties – fresh and frozen. What are the differences and which one should you buy for Thanksgiving?
Fresh turkeys are chilled but never frozen. Pros are they more closely replicate the texture and juiciness of a home cooked bird. The big downside is their short shelf life – fresh turkeys only last 1-2 days in the fridge once purchased. Make sure you pick up a fresh turkey as close to Thanksgiving as possible.
Frozen turkeys are flash frozen soon after processing to lock in freshness. They can be stored in the freezer for up to a year. Allow 3-4 days to thaw a frozen turkey in the fridge before cooking. Most supermarkets only carry frozen birds.
In my experience, premium fresh turkeys taste slightly better, but frozen birds are much more convenient. Make sure to calculate thawing time if going the frozen route. Overall, I don’t think the difference in flavor is significant enough to justify the extra effort of seeking out a specialty fresh turkey. The exception would be if you’re buying directly from a local farm or butcher.
Give Thanks for Turkey Deals!
While Thanksgiving turkey will cost you a bit more this year, bargains can still be found with some savvy shopping. Look at prices early, compare different stores, and buy store brands to maximize savings. With an average 15-30% uptick in per pound pricing, expect to pay around $1.25-$1.50 per pound for a frozen Thanksgiving turkey in 2022. Follow my tips to keep your bird budget under control and enjoy a beautiful, bountiful turkey as the centerpiece of your Thanksgiving feast. Gobble, gobble!
How many pounds of turkey per person do I actually need?
The general rule of thumb is 1–1½ pounds turkey per person. If that seems like a lot, remember that a whole turkey comes with a lot of parts that don’t end up getting eaten. “When you buy a whole turkey, a lot of it is bone,” says recipe developer (and former BA staffer) Jessie YuChen. The smaller the bird, the higher that percentage may be. For smaller gatherings, Jessie recommends scaling up to 2 pounds per person to maximize leftovers (more on that later). “For four to six people, 11 to 13 pounds is a good range,” Jessie says. (Most of our recipes call for a 12-to-14-pound bird.)
Beyond the bones, the total mass of a whole bird accounts for cartilage and less favorable cuts of meat around the shoulders, neck, and back that are better suited for making stock the next day than for presenting on a platter. Just because you’re buying a pound per each guest doesn’t mean it’ll yield an equivalent amount of turkey meat.
What if I’m afraid of underserving my guests?
“Most people put out so many sides that running out of turkey really isn’t an issue,” says contributing editor Amiel Stanek. “Turkey is, in my experience, the thing people want least.” As a host, you can even take some of your attention away from a cartoonishly large Rockwellian bird and think deeply about the Thanksgiving side dishes. This is where you can customize your selection based on the size, tastes, and needs of your crowd. Serving a few extra vegetarians this year? Go all-in on mashed potatoes, green bean casserole, and roasted veggies (we recommend balsamic-roasted brussels sprouts, which are a test kitchen favorite).
Want to show off your baking skills? Make a big tray of showstopping stuffing biscuits. And, of course, you’ve got to have cranberry sauce—either homemade or canned, that’s your prerogative.
If you’re wondering, How big of a turkey do I need, really?, Amiel points out that the bigger the turkey, the less likely it is to cook evenly. He would much rather serve smallish portions of perfect poultry than massive servings that are half-raw, half-dry. “In terms of ensuring that the breast meat is delicious and moist and the dark meat is cooked through, I think you’re going to get the best results from a 14-to-15-pound turkey, max.”
Turkey size per person
Our advice: Go for a smaller turkey. We promise, there’ll be enough to go around.
If a 15-pound bird sounds teeny compared to your guest list, Amiel and Jessie recommend supplementing with a different meat or protein (no matter your party’s size). “I like to do steak or lamb chops,” says Jessie, “which are very festive and a lot easier to prepare than a whole turkey.” Having a second meat on the table provides a backup if your bird is on the scrawny side, but it also makes your turkey stretch further. Aim for 1–1½ total pounds of protein per person, including your supplementary main, and you’ll have nothing to worry about.
If you’re hosting a smaller gathering, another option is to forgo the roast turkey entirely in favor of a smaller bird—roast chicken or glazed duck make just as nice a centerpiece.
How long do you cook a turkey per pound in the oven?
FAQ
What is the price of a turkey per pound?
How much does a 15 lb turkey serve?
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Number of Guests
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Turkey Weight–
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12
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15lbs
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15
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20lbs
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20
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25lbs
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25
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32lbs
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How much is a 20 lb turkey feed?
How many people will a 10 lb turkey fees?
How much Turkey do you cook per pound?
On average, plan for one to one and half pounds per Thanksgiving guest. For 10 people, you’ll want a turkey between 10 and 15 pounds. If you want leftovers, go bigger. How long do you cook a turkey per pound? The standard rule of turkey roasting time says 13 minutes per pound for unstuffed birds and 15 minutes per pound for the stuffed ones.
How much does a 15 pound turkey cost?
To that end, the folks at FinanceBuzz compiled a list of turkey prices in every state to find out where home cooks can expect to pay the most and least for their Thanksgiving meal. According to the findings, Americans can expect to pay an average of $34.15 for a frozen 15-pound turkey this year, which translates to about $2.28 per pound.
How much should a turkey weigh?
Obviously, while the range of weights you’ll find on turkey at the store varies, it’s rarer to find birds less than 10 pounds or over 30 lbs. For large groups of people, consider buying a couple of smaller turkeys to match the pound per person rule. So if you need to feed 60 people, buy two turkeys that are around 20 pounds each.
How much does a turkey cost at Whole Foods?
The all natural brined young turkey is priced at $1.99 per pound, while the limited Glatt kosher turkeys are $2.99 per pound. This year, Whole Foods is offering low holiday prices and three different turkey options. Whole turkeys start at $1.99 per pound, while organic whole turkeys are $2.99 per pound.