[Editor’s Note: Army Mad Scientist is pleased to present our latest episode of The Convergence podcast, featuring Karen Kaya — Senior Turkey/Middle East Analyst for the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO), within the TRADOC G-2 — discussing the Bayraktar TB-2 Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), its employment in recent conflicts including Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia-Ukraine, as well as the implications of Turkey becoming a global drone manufacturer and distributor — Enjoy!]
[If the podcast dashboard is not rendering correctly for you, please click here to listen to the podcast.]
Karen Kaya spe
cializes in Middle Eastern affairs with a particular focus on Turkey for the Foreign Military Studies Office (FMSO) within the TRADOC G-2. She has worked on numerous projects in national security as a defense and security policy analyst. Ms. Kaya has a BA from Boğaziçi University (in Istanbul, Turkey), and an MA from Brandeis University.
In today’s podcast, we talk with Ms. Kaya about the Bayraktar TB-2 UAV, its employment in recent conflicts including Nagorno-Karabakh and Russia-Ukraine, as well as the implications of Turkey becoming a global drone manufacturer and distributor. The following bullet points highlight key insights from our interview:
Stay tuned to the Mad Scientist Laboratory for our next episode of The Convergence, featuring Amy Webb, futurist, author, and founder and CEO of the Future Today Institute. We’ll talk with Amy about strategic foresight, emerging technologies like synthetic biology, and what she sees as vital implications for the U.S. Army.
If you enjoyed Karen Kaya‘s podcast, check out her related monograph — Turkey as a Drone Superpower: A Case Study of a Mid-Size Power Driving the Operational Environment
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Disclaimer: The views expressed in this blog post do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Defense, Department of the Army, Army Futures Command (AFC), or Training and Doctrine Command (TRADOC).
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Over the last decade, Turkey has rapidly developed its domestic drone capabilities to become one of the leading drone powers in the world Especially with the success of its Bayraktar TB2 drone, Turkey is now a major producer, operator, and exporter of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). But does this make Turkey an outright drone superpower yet? Let’s analyze the rise of Turkey’s drone industry
The Emergence of Turkey’s Drone Sector
Turkey laid the foundations for its drone program in the early 2000s by acquiring and reverse-engineering Israeli drones like the IAI Heron This allowed Turkish companies like Turkish Aerospace Industries (TAI) and Baykar to acquire technical know-how and train engineers.
Domestic production began around 2007, with early models like the TAI Anka and Bayraktar TB1 surveillance drones. The armed and more advanced Bayraktar TB2 first flew in 2009, with mass production starting in 2012. To date, over 200 TB2s have been produced for Turkish forces.
Operational use of Turkish UAVs accelerated in 2015 against the PKK in southeast Turkey. Their success in locating and eliminating targets helped build confidence and demand.
Expanding Use and Exports
Turkey deployed drones to Syria in 2016, and then Libya and Nagorno-Karabakh in 2020. Their tactical impact quickly became evident. TB2s used precision-guided MAM munitions to destroy hundreds of armored vehicles, air defenses, and artillery systems operated by adversaries.
This battlefield performance put Turkish drones in the spotlight globally. Countries like Ukraine and Poland signed major procurement deals with Baykar. TB2 exports expanded to over a dozen nations across Europe, Africa, and Asia. In 2021, the TB2 represented nearly 10% of global medium altitude long endurance (MALE) drone transfers.
Revenues for Turkish UAV firms also skyrocketed, reaching over $500 million in 2021. The Turkish drone sector is still relatively small at around $1 billion, but has enormous growth potential.
Turkey’s Drone Capabilities
Here are some key metrics demonstrating Turkey’s rising drone powers:
- 200+ – Number of Bayraktar TB2 drones produced and operated, with backorders for 121 more
- 12+ – Countries which have procured the TB2, including Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Morocco
- 4 – Number of MALE UAV models Turkey has fielded – the Anka, TB2, Akinci, and Akinc-Kar
- 90 km – Max loaded range of the Akinc-Kar loitering munition, giving it deep strike potential
- 1,150 kg – Max takeoff weight of the Akinci heavy drone, putting it in the same class as the Reaper
- 500 kg – Payload capacity of the Akinci, which can carry 12 munitions or sensors
- $500 million – Annual revenues generated by Turkish UAV firms as of 2021
Is Turkey a Drone Superpower Yet?
Based on its growing drone capabilities and industry, Turkey is certainly an emerging power. But it isn’t quite a superpower yet alongside the U.S., China, and Israel. Some limitations Turkey still faces include:
- Limited UAV operational experience relative to the U.S. and Israel
- No armed stealth drones, hypersonic missiles, or full autonomy like China’s drones
- Not yet a top-tier global exporter like the U.S. and China with over 50% market share
- No armed drones employed in politically complex battlespaces like Iraq or Afghanistan
- Engine and some subsystem imports still required from Europe and Canada
However, Turkey aims to develop a fully independent defense industry by 2053. If current momentum in the UAV sector continues, Turkey does appear on the path to joining the elite drone powers over the next decade.
What’s Next for Turkish Drones?
Turkey is actively advancing its drone capabilities even further:
- The Akinci heavy drone entered production in 2021, with features rivaling the MQ-9 Reaper.
- Stealthy fighter drones like the MIUS are under development to penetrate adversary air defenses.
- Swarming drone technologies are being researched for coordinated mass attacks.
- Efforts are underway to nationally source all UAV subsystems like engines and sensors.
- Armed helicopters and ground vehicles are being adapted to carry Turkish drones.
- Next-gen drones with pseudo-satellite functions, air-to-air capabilities, and extended ranges are planned.
Geopolitical Implications
Turkey’s rise as an autonomous drone power has wide-ranging implications:
- Reduces reliance on Western suppliers and restrictions, providing more policy options.
- Generates soft power and influence through UAV exports to allied nations.
- Offers asymmetric capabilities to counter larger military powers in the region.
- Allows Turkey to pursue a more assertive foreign policy as seen in Syria, Libya, and Iraq.
- Risks instability from the proliferation of Turkish drones to non-state actors.
- Strains Turkey’s relations with roadblock states unhappy with its drone success like Canada.
Turkey has made remarkable progress in developing armed drones over the last decade. While not yet an equal to the U.S., China, or Israel, Turkey is emerging as formidable new player in the international drone industry. With its ongoing investments, technical improvements, and operational experience, Turkey appears firmly on the path to becoming a drone superpower within the next 10 to 20 years.
MORE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT RESOURCES…
Foreign Military Studies Office OE Watch
Watch The Future of Unmanned Maritime Systems Webinar [via a non-DoD network]
PRIMERS ON THE OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT
The Changing Character of Future Warfare video
Potential Game Changers handout
How did Turkey become an UAV superpower?
FAQ
Is Turkey an UAV superpower?
Which country is leading in drone technology?
Does Turkey have good drones?
How many combat drones does Turkey have?
Why is Turkey a strong drone superpower?
Turkey’s emergence as a strong drone superpower can be attributed to its advancements in defense technology. The Bayraktar TB-2 drone played a crucial role in the war between Russia and Ukraine, where it targeted Russian tanks with precision. Turkey has also become the largest exporter of drones in the world since 2018.
Can Turkey become a drone power?
Turkey’s aspiration to establish itself as a drone power has come at a time when the country’s relations with its allies and traditional defence industry partners in the West, such as the United States, have started to deteriorate (Aydın 2021, 1388).
Why does Turkey use drones?
Unlike the US and Israel, Turkey deploys drones not only against rebels, but also in war against armies of other countries, says Arda Mevlütoğlu, a defence specialist from Ankara. Turkey deploys drones in coordination with electronic warfare, jamming enemy anti-aircraft and communications operations so that the drones can attack unimpeded.
How good is Turkish drone technology?
In under 10 years, Turkish defence companies have developed armed drones nearly as good as those made by established arms manufacturers in the US and Israel. A look at these developments in Turkey helps us understand better how drone technology is proliferating all over the world.