Is There a Turkey Shortage This Year?

For many Americans, Thanksgiving just isn’t complete without a juicy, perfectly-roasted turkey as the centerpiece of the holiday meal. But over the past couple of years, rising food costs and supply chain issues have led some to wonder – will there be enough turkey to go around this Thanksgiving?

A Look Back at the 2022 Turkey Shortage

Last year turkey was hard to come by leading up to Thanksgiving. In fact the price of whole frozen turkeys jumped a whopping 25% compared to 2021, rising from $1.15 per pound to $1.46 per pound according to the United States Department of Agriculture.

This massive spike in turkey prices and dwindling inventory was caused by a perfect storm of factors:

• The Avian Flu Outbreak – 2022 saw the worst avian flu outbreak in history, resulting in the deaths of millions of commercial turkeys and chickens. This significantly reduced the supply.

• Inflation – General inflation hit a 40-year high in 2022, driving up prices for turkey feed, transportation, packaging, and labor. These extra costs were passed onto consumers.

• Supply Chain Issues – Ongoing supply chain disruptions made it difficult for turkey producers to obtain needed materials and get birds to market. This added to costs and constrained supply.

For many families, this meant smaller gatherings, pivoting to other main dishes like ham or beef, or shelling out more money for a Thanksgiving turkey. Given last year’s shortages, it’s natural to wonder – will there be enough turkeys to go around this year?

The 2023 Turkey Supply Looks More Promising

The good news is that turkey availability for Thanksgiving 2023 is shaping up to be much better compared to 2022.

Here are some reasons why experts are forecasting a more plentiful turkey supply this holiday season

• Lower Avian Flu Impact – While avian flu is still present, outbreaks have been less severe in 2023. Lower losses mean more turkeys reaching maturity.

• Increased Production – Turkey producers are working hard to replenish flocks and increase production to normal levels after 2022’s shortages. More poults are being hatched and raised.

• Moderating Inflation – Inflationary pressure has eased somewhat, reducing cost pressures for turkey farmers. This allows them to increase supply without having to raise prices as much.

• Improving Supply Chains – Shipping, transportation, and materials issues still linger but have improved compared to 2022. This makes it easier to get turkeys to store shelves.

• Lower Export Demand – With the strong dollar, export demand for US turkey has declined. This means more domestic availability.

As a result of these positive factors, industry groups like the National Turkey Federation are predicting turkeys will be in ample supply for the 2023 holidays. The expectation is that while prices may be moderately higher than pre-shortage years, they’ll be lower than 2022.

When and Where to Shop for Your Thanksgiving Turkey

With turkeys expected to be more readily available this year, experts still recommend shopping early for the best selection and pricing. Here are some turkey shopping tips:

• Shop Early – Start checking for turkeys as early as late October and early November. You’ll beat the rush and have more options.

• Shop Local – Visit small local farms and butcher shops in your area as they may have more limited supply. Shopping early is key.

• Check Freezer Sections – Frozen turkeys can be purchased and stored in the freezer for up to a year without losing quality.

• Consider Alternative Sizes – Opt for a smaller turkey breast or other cuts rather than a large whole bird if needed.

• Watch for Sales & Specials – Retailers will promote turkey specials leading up to the holidays. Look for discounted prices both in-store and online.

• Talk to Your Retailer – Discuss your turkey order with the meat department manager early if you want a specific size or type of bird.

As long as you shop savvy and plan ahead, you should be able to find a great turkey centerpiece for your Thanksgiving feast this year. While prices may be higher than usual due to lingering inflation, widespread shortages are far less likely given experts’ optimistic supply forecasts. With a little preparation, your family can look forward to enjoying all your favorite Thanksgiving turkey traditions again this year.

Turkey Alternatives If You Still Can’t Find One

With so many hungry turkey-lovers out there, it’s always possible that demand might still outstrip supply in some areas. If you try all the turkey shopping tips but still strike out, don’t despair! You have alternatives for a memorable and delicious Thanksgiving meal:

Go Smaller – Cook a turkey breast, turkey roast or other cuts, or even cornish hens for individual servings.

Try Other Poultry – Chicken, duck, and capon are great poultry alternatives. Goose or quail can offer a more unique meal.

Consider Other Meats – Ham, prime rib, pork loin, lamb, and venison also make splendid holiday centerpieces.

Go Meatless – For vegetarian gatherings, a mushroom or lentil loaf, nut roast, or vegetable medley can take the place of turkey.

Buy Just Legs & Wings – These are often more readily available than whole birds. Cook them along with side dishes.

Order from a Restaurant – Let someone else handle turkey duties! Many restaurants and caterers offer complete holiday meals.

Cook Early or Late – Have your gathering on a non-peak day and you’ll dodge the rush. Turkey supplies bounce back in December.

As you can see, with a little flexibility and creativity, you have lots of options for an amazing, memorable Thanksgiving dinner even if that perfect turkey remains elusive. The important thing is being together with loved ones to enjoy the holiday.

In Summary

After two long years of shortages, soaring turkey prices, and supply headaches, Thanksgiving 2023 is looking a lot brighter when it comes to availability of everyone’s favorite holiday bird. Barring any unexpected shocks, turkeys should be noticeably easier to find at more reasonable prices compared to last year thanks to rebounding production, easing inflation, and other positive factors.

That said, some regions or niche turkey products could see tight inventory. So shop early, stay flexible on size or type, and consider alternatives like other meats or poultry just in case. With smart preparation, you can feel confident you’ll be carving up a beautiful roasted turkey this Thanksgiving as holiday gatherings get back to normal. Here’s hoping for a joyful and stress-free holiday with family, friends, and a table overflowing with your favorite dishes.