Has Turkey Left NATO?

Turkey has been a member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) since 1952. With NATO’s second largest army and as host to the Allied Land Command headquarters, Turkey has played a significant role in the alliance. The Incirlik and Konya Airbases in Turkey have been actively involved in NATO operations for decades.

Despite its longstanding membership, Turkey’s commitment to NATO has come into question in recent years. Some analysts suggest Turkey should be expelled from NATO while others believe Turkey may choose to leave voluntarily. This article explores the likelihood of Turkey’s withdrawal.

Turkey’s Importance to NATO

As NATO’s only Muslim-majority member, Turkey has strategic value by bridging the alliance with the Middle East. The Bosporus Strait, controlled by Turkey, is strategically vital as the sole maritime route between the Black Sea and the Mediterranean.

Turkey boasts NATO’s second largest army after the United States. The Turkish armed forces total over 410,000 active personnel. Turkey is one of the few NATO members that actually meets the alliance’s defense spending target of 2% of GDP.

The Incirlik Air Base has been the most active U.S. air base outside Afghanistan and Iraq. Housing over 5,000 U.S. personnel, it has supported NATO operations in Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, and Syria. The Konya Air Base houses an early warning radar system for NATO’s missile defense.

Causes of Tension Within NATO

In recent years. relations between Turkey and other NATO members have deteriorated

• The 2016 attempted coup in Turkey led to suspicions of Western involvement. Thousands of Turkish officers were dismissed, impacting military coordination.

• Turkey’s 2019 offensive into Syria met condemnation from other NATO states like France.

• Turkey acquired advanced S-400 missile systems from Russia in 2017, contrary to NATO interoperability standards. This led to Turkey’s exclusion from the F-35 program.

• Greece and Turkey experienced renewed tensions in 2020 over maritime boundaries, despite both being NATO allies. France increased military cooperation with Greece.

• Turkey initially opposed NATO membership for Finland and Sweden in 2022, before dropping objections.

Is Turkey Likely to Leave NATO?

President Erdogan has occasionally spoken of leaving NATO, but most experts agree Turkey is unlikely to voluntarily exit the alliance:

• While Erdogan employs fiery rhetoric for domestic audiences, he is pragmatic. Leaving NATO would diminish Turkey’s security and global influence.

• NATO membership remains popular among Turks, with polls showing 60-70% support. The Turkish public recognizes the security benefits.

• Turkey lacks viable alternative security partners. Relationships with Russia, China, and Iran involve pragmatism rather than shared values or trust.

• Losing reliable allies would force Turkey into arms races and greater defense spending. Military technology relies heavily on Europe and North America.

• NATO membership signals Western alignment, useful for attracting investment and EU accession hopes.

Could Turkey be Expelled from NATO?

There is no formal process to expel a member from NATO. Consensus among all other members would likely be required. Most analysts view expulsion as improbable:

• NATO has weathered previous crises among members, including the 1974 Greek-Turkish conflict and the 1982 Falklands War between the UK and fellow member Argentina.

• Keeping Turkey engaged is seen as strategically preferable to pushing it toward adversaries. Alienation could drive Turkey deeper into cooperation with Russia.

• Expelling Turkey would require revoking NATO treaty commitments to defend the country. This would undermine NATO’s credibility and could topple Erdogan’s government.

• Losing Turkey would greatly reduce NATO’s influence in the Black Sea and Middle East. Alternative basing arrangements would be difficult to establish.

The Future of Turkey in NATO

While Turkey-NATO tensions have increased, Turkey remains deeply enmeshed within NATO’s command structures and activities. Shared interests continue around countering terrorism and managing Russia.

NATO will likely pursue engagement over isolation with Turkey, aiming to exert greater influence. Turkey will also avoid crossing “red lines” that could fracture relations irreparably.

Barring unforeseen events, Turkey is poised to remain a NATO member for the foreseeable future. But expect periodic turbulence as NATO continues adapting to Turkey’s independent streak.