What Happens If Turkey Leaves NATO?

If Turkey leaves NATO, the risks to its security are minimal – but the alliance would suffer if it quits.

Ever since Turkey joined NATO in 1952, Ankara has viewed its membership in alliance as a win-win proposition, where NATO enhances Turkey’s security and contributes to its integration with the Euro-Atlantic community, and in return, Turkey assumes its responsibilities in defending the interests of the alliance.

But the past few years have put much strain on the relationship, as NATO proves unable or unwilling to stem the tide of mounting regional instability caused by the rise of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS) group against the backdrop of the civil wars in Iraq and Syria on Turkey’s doorsteps.

And last week, the failed coup seemed to deepening distrust between Turkey and its NATO allies.

US Secretary of State John Kerry warned that exploiting the coup to crack down on its detractors and undermine its democracy, could cost Turkey its NATO membership.

But regardless of the seriousness of the US warning – and I think it’s not serious – will Ankara continue to be part of NATO, especially when its attempts to join the European Union have all but failed?

The US has long embraced Turkey as a strategic asset, regardless of the latter’s abuse of democracy.

For decades, Washington has maintained close strategic relations with Ankara despite – or thanks to – four military coups, in 1960, 1971, 1980, 1997, and even after its invasion of Cyprus in 1974.

But reading the mainstream Western media gives the impression that Turkey under the Erdogan administration has become hostile to Western interests; a “strategic liability”, an “irresponsible loose cannon”, or a “reckless, aggressive ally” and a “fifth column”.

Not according to retired NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis. He argued in a recent Foreign Policy magazine expose that Turkey has been present in “virtually every NATO operation with significant impact: training Afghan Security Forces and leading coalition efforts in the central district, including Kabul; sending ships and aircraft to Libya; participating in counterpiracy operations; maintaining a steady presence in the security and peacekeeping force in the Balkans”.

Moreover, according to Stavridis – who is considered by Hillary Clinton as a running mate – Turkey has an “enormous ability” to influence events, “from the Islamic State to Syria; Israel to oil and gas in the eastern Mediterranean; responding to radical Islam to stability in Egypt”.

In short, the record shows that Turkey under the Erdogan administration has been a major NATO asset; indeed, it’s been more of a benefactor than benefiter from the alliance.

The Justice and Development Party (AK party) seems as enthusiastic for doing NATO’s bidding if not more than its secular nationalist predecessors; or even its Western allies. And it sees a new, greater role for itself and NATO in the Middle East moving forward.

Since NATO’s first “out of area” operations in Afghanistan in 2001, Turkey has argued that it’s best situated to contribute to such interventions considering the instability in the greater Middle East area.

Former Turkish Foreign and Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu went further to urge Europe to support change in the Middle East as it did in Eastern Europe, and vowing that “Turkey will continue to be an asset and an influential actor within NATO if future needs arise, or further NATO involvement in the Middle East” (PDF).

But that, in my view, is not necessarily constructive for Turkey or the Middle East region. Certainly not after the invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq, and not when Turkey is treated as a foot soldier in an alliance of powerful Western states.

Despite repeated terrorist attacks in Istanbul and other Turkish cities, Turks feel as though their specific worries and interests are “not respected” within the North Atlantic Council.

Instead of being friends and allies on equal terms, the US and its European allies continue to speak down at Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Turkey – most recently France’s foreign minister, who was told to mind his own business.

All of which begs the question: what happens if Ankara is suspended or it breaks away from the alliance?

Turkey’s membership in NATO has been controversial lately, with some questioning whether the country still shares the values of the alliance. There has been discussion of whether Turkey could voluntarily leave NATO or be expelled. But what would actually happen if Turkey leaves the alliance? Here is an overview of the potential consequences and scenarios.

Why Might Turkey Leave?

There are a few reasons Turkey may choose to leave NATO voluntarily

Ideological differences. Under President Erdogan, Turkey has been shifting towards a more religious and authoritarian governance. This contrasts with NATO’s democratic values. Turkey may feel it no longer aligns with NATO ideologically.
Strained relations Turkey’s relations with other NATO members, like the US and some European countries, have become strained over issues like Syria policy, S-400 missiles, and more Turkey may wish to distance itself from what it sees as a hostile bloc.
Pursuing alternatives. Turkey might leave to build strategic relationships outside of NATO, like with Russia. This could give it more freedom in foreign policy.
Public sentiment. Turkish public opinion towards NATO has soured recently. Leaving the alliance could be politically popular domestically.

Can Turkey Be Expelled?

There is no formal process to expel members laid out in NATO’s founding treaty. However, experts argue NATO could still effectively expel Turkey by:

Declaring Turkey in “material breach” of commitments to democracy and human rights under the treaty. This would allow members to suspend Turkey with consensus minus Turkey.
Member states simply refusing to honor their collective defense obligations to Turkey under Article 5, while not formally suspending it.

Expelling Turkey would likely require consensus among other NATO members. Many may be reluctant, seeing it as an extreme measure.

Consequences for Turkey

If Turkey leaves NATO, whether voluntarily or by expulsion, it would face major strategic consequences:

Lose collective defense. Turkey would no longer be covered by NATO’s Article 5 guarantee of mutual defense assistance. This could leave it more vulnerable to foreign threats.
Damage relations. Departing would likely further damage Turkey’s relationships with NATO allies, undermining political and economic ties.
Lose military integration. Turkey would be cut off from integrated NATO military structures. Its armed forces could become isolated and lose interoperability.
Diminished influence. Turkey’s global influence could decline without the backing of the world’s most powerful military alliance. Its interests may not factor into NATO decisions anymore.
More Russian reliance. Turkey may depend more on Russia for military equipment and strategic partnerships, if NATO ties are severed. This could concern NATO.

Consequences for NATO

NATO would also face repercussions if Turkey departs:

Lose strategic location. NATO would be deprived of Turkey’s strategically important geographic position near Russia and the Middle East. This could hinder operations.
Military capability gap. Turkey has NATO’s 2nd largest military after the US. Losing these personnel and resources creates a significant capability gap.
Undermine credibility. Expelling a longtime member like Turkey could shake faith in NATO’s cohesion and mutual defense commitments overall.
Increase instability. With NATO absent, Turkey may act more assertively in places like Syria, Iraq, and the eastern Mediterranean. This could be destabilizing.
Empower Russia. Russia could gain leverage with Turkey after its break from NATO. An influential Turkey outside NATO is concerning for the alliance.

What’s Next?

While Turkey leaving NATO currently seems unlikely, the idea can’t be ruled out entirely given the strained relationships. NATO members will likely try to find compromises to resolve divisions with Turkey before they worsen. But if Turkey does eventually depart, it would significantly reshape the NATO alliance and geopolitics. Managing that transition would pose major challenges on both sides.

what happens if turkey leaving nato

The alternative and its consequences

If Turkey leaves NATO, the risks to its security are minimal. It has a bigger military and higher defence spending than any one of its neighbours or its NATO allies, with the exception of the US.

True, its relations with its neighbours aren’t great, but Ankara has tried to improve them over the past few weeks and months, especially by mending fences with Israel and Russia.

In fact, before the coup, Turkey was reportedly heading, once again, towards a more pragmatic non-interventionist “zero-problems” diplomacy towards its neighbours.

But one can’t say the same for NATO; the alliance will suffer if Turkey quits.

First, it’ll be exposed for being a military club of influential, predominantly Christian nations with grave consequences to its out-of-area operations.

Second, NATO will find it far more challenging, if not totally improbable, to win the war against ISIL.

Third, if Turkey were to destabilise, the repercussions would be grave for Europe, and could potentially strengthen ISIL.

Fourth, It will embolden Russia to act more aggressively in the region. And fifth, the US and NATO would lose their five major military facilities in Turkey.

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FAQ

What happens if a country wants to leave NATO?

The formal process is stated in article 13 of the Treaty. This says that any country that wants to leave must send the United States (as the depositary state) a “notice of denunciation”, which the U.S. would then pass on to the other Allies.

Why doesn’t Turkey leave NATO?

Turkey assumed the responsibility to protect southeastern border of the Alliance during Cold War period. As a result of her proactive foreign policy and contributions provided to crisis management and peace-keeping missions, Turkey’s role within NATO constantly increased since the end of the Cold War.

How important is Turkey to NATO?

Turkey has been a member of NATO since 1952, has its second largest army and is the host of the Allied Land Command headquarters. The Incirlik and Konya Airbases have both been involved in several NATO military operations since their establishment.

Which country left NATO?

No countries have left NATO since its founding.

Can Turkey withdraw from NATO?

Turkey joined NATO in 1952 and has the alliance’s second-largest army. NATO does not have a specific mechanism to suspend or expel a member, though members may voluntarily withdraw. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg dismissed the possibility of creating such a mechanism in 2021, saying it “would never happen.”

Why did Turkey reject NATO?

Turkey’s rejection of NATO accession for Sweden and Finland, beyond undercutting NATO’s response to Russia’s aggression, reflects a deeper rift between the West and Turkey. This is further manifest by Ankara’s recent threat to expand into northern Syria and its overflights of Greek territory.

Should Turkey’s NATO membership be suspended?

At the time, U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham suggested Turkey’s membership in NATO should have been suspended, if Turkish troops attacked the Kurdish forces who had helped the U.S. destroy the ISIS Caliphate. But the North Atlantic Treaty regulating NATO does not have an option to suspend or even expel members.

Does Turkey have a long-term commitment to NATO?

Although Turkey has found comfort in NATO’s security, Ankara’s long-term commitment to the alliance should not be taken for granted: Turkey has at least two strategic alternatives to NATO. Only a few years ago, Turkey’s commitment to NATO was in doubt.