is turkey going to invade syria

Is Turkey Going to Invade Syria?

Turkey has been threatening to launch a new military offensive into northeast Syria for months. This has sparked fears of yet another bloody chapter in Syria’s long-running civil war and raised concerns for civilians caught in the crossfire.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long aimed to push back Syrian Kurdish forces from Turkey’s borders and create a “safe zone” stretching 32 kilometers into Syria He reiterated this goal as recently as January 2023

Turkey has already carried out three incursions into northern Syria since 2016, seizing control of areas in northern Aleppo province and parts of neighboring Raqqa and Hasaka provinces. These operations allowed Turkey to limit Kurdish territorial control but also displaced thousands and led to widespread human rights abuses against civilians.

Now, Ankara is threatening a new push specifically targeting the cities of Tel Rifaat and Manbij in northern Aleppo province. Both strategic areas are currently controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – the U.S.-backed Kurdish-led group that controls much of northeastern Syria.

The Prospect of Another Turkish Offensive

Tensions between Turkey and the SDF have been rising for months, with Turkish drone strikes and shelling targeting areas under SDF control.

According to the Rojava Information Center, a local volunteer media group, these attacks killed at least 44 civilians between January and August 2022. Turkey says it is responding to escalating SDF attacks along the border.

In August, the SDF claimed its forces killed several Turkish soldiers in operations near the border. This prompted Erdogan to threaten a ground offensive into SDF-held northern Syria.

Turkish officials argue another incursion is needed for national security. They consider the main component of the SDF – the People’s Protection Units (YPG) – to be a terrorist organization due to its links with the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which has waged an insurgency against Turkey since the 1980s.

A second Turkish objective is resettling around one million Syrian refugees, now hosted in Turkey, into its envisioned “safe zone”. Turkey currently hosts over 3.6 million Syrian refugees, the largest refugee population in the world.

But the international community has warned against another Turkish military campaign in Syria. The United States, Russia, Iran and others fear it could further destabilize the war-torn country and lead to more civilian suffering.

Concerns for Civilians

Previous Turkish offensives have been accompanied by alleged war crimes and displaced hundreds of thousands of people.

There are particular concerns for the already dire humanitarian situation in northern Syria if fighting escalates again. After 11 years of conflict, Syria’s economy and infrastructure are decimated. Over 13 million people depend on humanitarian assistance to survive.

In opposition-held northwest Syria, over 4 million people – around 75% of the population – have already been displaced at least once. A further Turkish offensive would likely spur a new wave of displacement and place additional strains on overstretched aid efforts.

Rights groups have also raised concerns for tens of thousands of people detained by the SDF on suspicion of Islamic State links, including many foreign women and children. Already held in dismal conditions, detainees could face additional suffering and security risks if the SDF is forced to divert resources during Turkish military operations.

Why Northeast Syria Matters

Northeast Syria makes up around one-third of the country. Since 2015, the SDF has become the predominant military and political actor there. It established an autonomous administration after defeating ISIS across large swathes of northeastern Syria with U.S.-led coalition air and ground support.

This project, which Kurdish-led forces call Rojava, envisioned an autonomous multi-ethnic region with a decentralized system of government. It attracted support across northern Syria’s Kurdish-majority areas but also faces opposition from other local groups.

Turkey considers growing Kurdish influence along its border a national security threat. But the SDF has also been Washington’s main partner in the fight against ISIS. Ankara’s plans for a “safe zone” could jeopardize U.S. interests in the region.

Russia, too, has warned against a Turkish incursion. Moscow’s troops patrol frontlines in northeast Syria following the 2019 offensive. Russia and Turkey have strengthen cooperation in Syria in recent years, but analysts say widening divisions between them could emerge if Turkey pushes ahead with its goals.

What’s Next?

While Erdogan has repeatedly threatened to order an offensive “one night suddenly”, no major military campaign has been launched so far in 2022 or 2023.

Turkey is pushing the United States and Russia to get the SDF to pull back from the Turkish border. But its demands have so far been unmet. With Bashar al-Assad’s forces also increasing deployments near Turkish positions, the risks of direct confrontation are rising.

In January 2023, Erdogan affirmed Turkey’s plans to establish a 30-kilometer safe zone in northern Syria. Whether a full-blown offensive follows his rhetoric remains uncertain. But with international opposition mounting, the risks to Syrian civilians caught in the middle are clear.