Jay L. Zagorsky does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
Thanksgiving is a great U.S. holiday during which people consume huge quantities of turkey, stuffing, cranberry sauce and pie.
One of the stranger things about this holiday, however, is that a few days before everyone starts cooking, whole turkeys are suddenly discounted by supermarkets and grocery stores.
And this happens every holiday season: The price falls just before Thanksgiving and stays low until Christmas. For example, in the average year, November’s price per pound for turkey is about 10 percent lower than the price in September.
Why does the price come down at the one time of the year when demand for the product spikes the most – before a holiday that’s literally dubbed “Turkey Day”?
Finding the Best Turkey Deals Around Thanksgiving
Turkey takes center stage at many Thanksgiving feasts, but buying one at the right time is key to getting the best price. Contrary to popular belief, turkey prices actually tend to drop as Thanksgiving approaches rather than rise. Here’s a look at when you can find turkey on sale and score the lowest prices for your holiday bird.
The Myth of “Pre-Holiday” Turkey Sales
A common misconception is that buying a turkey weeks or months before Thanksgiving will mean getting a good deal. However, retailers actually tend to discount turkeys as the holiday nears in order to sell off excess inventory. As demand spikes right before Thanksgiving, grocers, warehouse clubs and supermarkets will mark down prices to attract buyers and clear out turkeys.
Sure, some stores may offer turkey discounts here and there in October or early November But the peak time for rock-bottom turkey prices is typically a few days before Thanksgiving up until the day before the holiday. Waiting until the last minute to shop doesn’t mean you’ll pay higher prices – you’ll likely find just the opposite
When Retailers Start Dropping PricesMost supermarkets will start rolling out turkey promotions and discounts about two weeks before Thanksgiving. For example, your local grocery chain may offer a turkey for free or at a very low cost if you spend over a certain dollar amount on your total Thanksgiving grocery purchase.
As you get into the last week before Thanksgiving, and especially a few days prior, you’ll see more dramatic price drops. It’s not uncommon to find frozen turkeys being sold at a steep loss by grocers eager to sell off inventory before the big day. Even high-end fresh turkeys are often marked down. Take advantage of these “turkey fire sales” for the biggest savings.
Shopping Earlier for Fully Cooked Options
The above advice on waiting until right before Thanksgiving mainly applies to whole frozen and fresh turkeys. If you want a fully cooked, ready-to-eat turkey, those are sometimes available on sale earlier in November. Grocers know time-pressed hosts may want to buy a convenient fully cooked turkey weeks in advance. So keep an eye out for any early deals.
Warehouse clubs like Costco often start selling fully cooked turkeys right after Halloween at discounted prices. These precooked options can be purchased well ahead of time and simply reheated on Thanksgiving Day. Just be sure to check use-by dates.
Other Ways to Save on Turkey
In addition to strategically timing your turkey purchase, here are some other tips for keeping costs down:
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Opt for a frozen turkey – They are significantly cheaper than fresh turkeys. Go for an 8-12 lb bird to feed smaller gatherings.
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Buy a turkey breast rather than a whole bird if you have a smaller group. Turkey breasts often cost at least a dollar less per pound than a whole turkey.
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Check warehouse clubs for low everyday pricing on large frozen turkeys. Stock up if you host Thanksgiving annually.
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Use turkey coupons and rebates around Thanksgiving when available. Stores will heavily promote turkey deals.
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Shop supermarket turkey sales right up until the last minute. The discounts get bigger the closer it gets.
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Check athletic club, church, or community turkey fundraiser sales for competitive pricing.
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Order a free turkey by spending a certain amount. Many grocers offer this popular Thanksgiving deal.
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Buy a discounted post-Thanksgiving turkey to freeze for next year. Prices sink to their lowest after the holiday.
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Purchase a heritage breed pasture-raised turkey from a local farm. More flavorful but pricier.
When to Avoid Buying Turkey
The two times when turkey prices are at their peak are September through late October and a couple days before Thanksgiving Day. Late October is when demand starts rising while inventory is still relatively low. And the day before Thanksgiving will have the most “desperation pricing” as panicked last-minute shoppers scramble to find any remaining turkeys. Avoid these narrow price spikes by planning ahead.
Avoiding the Year’s Priciest Bird
Thanksgiving turkeys have a reputation of being expensive. But following the guidance above can help you find the best discounts. With a little strategic timing and shopping around, you can serve up a delicious holiday turkey without overspending. Ignore the myth about pre-Thanksgiving deals – wait as long as possible to get the lowest price on the centerpiece of your Thanksgiving meal!
The turkey demand curve
Most people expect turkey prices to rise because many more people are buying the birds. My family is an example of this buying phenomenon, since we almost never eat turkey except at Thanksgiving.
In general, when there is a fixed quantity of something to sell and demand for the product spikes, prices rise. This is why a dozen long-stem red roses typically cost a lot more on Valentine’s Day than at other times of the year.
In more formal economic language, the demand curve for turkeys shifts outward at Thanksgiving, which means people at this time of year are interested in buying more of these birds regardless of the price. Even the most casual shopper in food stores this week can observe this increase or shift in demand as more people are buying turkeys to cook.
However, each Thanksgiving the price of turkeys doesn’t rise. Instead, it falls during the holiday period as many stores advertise special low turkey prices, and over time turkey prices have generally fallen.
Not only do supermarkets that sell turkeys year-round make the bird a featured item, but some food stores and warehouse stores that don’t typically sell whole turkeys offer them for a limited period of time to customers. This means not only does demand for turkeys increase, but the supply of turkey increases too. This boost in supply drives prices downward.
Food stores are not upset that the price of turkey falls at this time of the year because they are interested in maximizing profits – not in maximizing the revenue they get from selling each bird.
Turkeys are not very profitable items, even at full price. The wholesale price of a whole frozen turkey in 2016 was US$1.17 per pound, while the average retail price was $1.55. This means at full price stores made less than 40 cents per pound. To give you a comparison, the USDA reports the difference between the wholesale and retail price in 2016 was $2.79 per pound for beef and $2.25 per pound for pork.
Stores, however, know that people coming in to buy turkeys are likely to purchase other items, too, such as seasonings, disposable roasting pans and soda. The other items are where stores make their money, since the profit margins on these items are much higher than on frozen turkeys.
Why does the turkey supply skyrocket?
Because of the desire to attract people to stores, the supply of turkeys needs to skyrocket just before the holiday so that freezer cases overflow with the birds.
How does this dramatic increase in supply happen? It occurs because turkeys are slaughtered continuously throughout the year and then put into cold storage.
The Department of Agriculture has tracked the amount of turkey in wholesale freezers for the past century. The past few years of data show turkey stocks slowly build up each year until they reach a peak in September, when the U.S. has over half a billion pounds on reserve. Between September and December, turkey stocks plummet as stores purchase over 300 million pounds’ worth and put them on sale. Then farmers, processors and wholesalers slowly rebuild their stocks for the next year’s holiday season.
The 500 to 600 million pounds of turkey in cold storage by the end of each summer means there are almost two pounds of turkey for every man, woman and child in the U.S. waiting to be released each holiday season. That figure doesn’t include live turkeys, which some people prefer, and also doesn’t take into account vegetarians (about 3 percent of the population), newborns who are not eating solid food (about 1 percent) and people like my brother-in-law and me who don’t like eating turkey at any time of the year.
Prices in Turkey Right Now 2024
FAQ
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